Analysis of the relationship between water level temporal changes and seismicity in the Mingechevir reservoir (Azerbaija
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Analysis of the relationship between water level temporal changes and seismicity in the Mingechevir reservoir (Azerbaijan) Luciano Telesca & Fakhraddin Kadirov & Gurban Yetirmishli & Rafig Safarov & Gulam Babayev & Shirin Islamova & Sabina Kazimova Received: 24 June 2019 / Accepted: 24 April 2020 # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract The temporal variations of the instrumental seismicity (0.5 ≤ ML ≤ 3.5) recorded in the Mingechevir area (Azerbaijan) between January 2010 to December 2018 and its relationship with the level variation of the water reservoir was analysed in this study. The monthly number of events was analysed by using the correlogram-based periodogram, the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and the empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which are robust against the short size of the time series. Our results point out to the following findings: (1) quasi-annual periodicity was found in one SSA reconstructed component of the monthly number of events; (2) quasi-annual periodicity was found in one EMD intrinsic mode function of the monthly number of earthquakes. These obtained results could support in a rigorously statistical manner that the seismicity occurring in Mingechevir area could be triggered by the yearly cycle of the water level of the reservoir. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-020-09926-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. L. Telesca (*) Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis, National Research Council, 85050 Tito, PZ, Italy e-mail: [email protected] F. Kadirov : R. Safarov : G. Babayev Geology and Geophysics Institute, Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, H. Javid Ave., 119, AZ1143 Baku, Azerbaijan G. Yetirmishli : S. Islamova : S. Kazimova Republican Seismological Survey Center of ANAS, Nigar Rafibeyli Str., 25, AZ1001 Baku, Azerbaijan
Keywords Reservoir-triggered seismicity . Azerbaijan . Time series analysis
1 Introduction Reservoir-induced seismicity has been studied worldwide due to its potential to provoke damage to buildings and constructions and, more important, human loss. Reservoir-induced seismicity (RIS) is normally related with additional static loading (the weight of the water reservoir and its seasonal variations), tectonic faults, liquefaction and pore pressure variations. Such seismicity was investigated in many studies (Gough and Gough 1970; Gupta and Rastogi 1976; Gupta 1992; Liu et al. 2011; Rajendran et al. 1996; Rajendran and Harish 2000; Nascimento et al. 2004; Gupta et al. 2007; Gupta et al. 2015; Mikhailov et al. 2017; Valoroso et al. 2009; Braun et al. 2018). In those researches, it was generally concluded that filling reservoirs impacts the Earth’s crust and affects the seismic regime in seismically active regions. Dam operation is typically associated with seasonal water level fluctuations, which result in cyclic loading (Gupta 1992; Gupta et al. 2007). In general, previous researchers asserted that the seismic activ
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