Assessment of the effect of a planned marina on groundwater quality in Enfida plain (Tunisia)
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Assessment of the effect of a planned marina on groundwater quality in Enfida plain (Tunisia) Mounira Zammouri & Faten Jarraya-Horriche & Bio Oumaro Odo & Sihem Benabdallah
Received: 20 August 2012 / Accepted: 21 December 2012 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2013
Abstract The Enfida aquifer system is of importance to the economic activity of the eastern center of Tunisia. The planning of a marina is likely to present a significant risk on groundwater. Classical physically based modeling is used to better understand salty water intrusion in the aquifers. The transport model (MT3DMS) is coupled with the groundwater model (Modflow). Model calibration was carried out over the period 1972–2005. Four scenarios were then simulated for a 50-year period, to assess the effects of both planned marina and future abstraction regime. We predict a rise in the groundwater salinity generated by the planned pumping infrastructure. The impact of the planned project will be observed only near the marina. However, limited measurements of transmissivity may affect the model’s results. Thus, the second part of the paper is aimed to assess the models output error due to the uncertainty in transmissivity, using a stochastic approach. Hundred realizations of a log-normal random transmissivity field had been performed. According to the most pessimistic realizations, the uncertainty may reach 49 % in the sector of an M. Zammouri Faculté des Sciences de Tunis, Campus Universitaire, Tunis El Manar 2092, Tunisia e-mail: [email protected] F. Jarraya-Horriche (*) : S. Benabdallah Centre de Recherches et des Technologies des Eaux, BP 273, Soliman 8020, Tunisia e-mail: [email protected] S. Benabdallah e-mail: [email protected] B. O. Odo Ecole Supérieure des Ingénieurs de l’Equipement Rural de Medjez el bab, Route du Kef, km 5, 9070, Jendouba, Tunisia e-mail: [email protected]
important pumping field. Accordingly, the calculated concentration may reach 6.5 g/l in 2055 instead of 3.2 g/l. Keywords Hydrogeology . Groundwater . Flow modeling . Solute transport modeling . Kriging . Uncertainty . Stochastic simulation . Enfida plain
Introduction The impact of urbanization may affect water resources in terms of quality and quantity (Appleyard 1995; McAllister et al. 1996; Changming et al. 2001; Lerner 2002; Schiedek et al. 2007; Carlson et al. 2011 etc.). In such situation, modeling is an efficient tool to assist managers and decision makers in assessing their impact before implementation. The planning of a marina over an area of 30 km2 in the coastal zone of Enfida plain, in Tunisia, is likely to deteriorate the plain ecosystem and present significant risk on groundwater. In fact, the planned 20m depth basin to be dragged on the Mediterranean Sea threaten future water supply in the Enfida plain where groundwater is the most important freshwater resource. The Enfida plain is characterized by a Mediterranean environment where precipitation is erratic and moderate. It contains shallow and deep aquifers with variabl
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