Bayesian latent class evaluation of three tests for the screening of subclinical caprine mastitis in Bangladesh
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Bayesian latent class evaluation of three tests for the screening of subclinical caprine mastitis in Bangladesh Md. Aminul Islam 1,2,3 & Sharmin Aqter Rony 4 & Haruki Kitazawa 2,3 & AKM Anisur Rahman 1 Received: 16 January 2020 / Accepted: 3 March 2020 # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Routine monitoring for subclinical infection is one of the key mastitis control approaches. However, the accuracy of the most commonly used screening tests has not yet been established. The aim of the present study was therefore to evaluate the accuracy of three screening tests, namely California mastitis test (CMT), white side test (WST), and surf field mastitis test (SFMT) for the screening of subclinical caprine mastitis. A cross-sectional study based on 484 randomly collected milk (242 goats) samples from three districts of Bangladesh was conducted for the screening of subclinical mastitis by the aforementioned tests. The Bayesian latent class model was implemented in WinBUGS to estimate the tests’ characteristics and true prevalence of subclinical mastitis. The Bayesian posterior estimates of sensitivities with a 95% credible intervals (CrIs) were 98.60% (95.18–99.95%), 98.28% (94.56–99.92%), and 89.98% (83.39–95.03%), and specificities with 95% CrIs were 99.19% (98.11–99.96%), 99.27% (97.34– 99.98%), and 99.28% (97.35–99.98%), respectively for CMT, WST, and SFMT. The true prevalence of subclinical caprine mastitis was estimated to be 43.49% (95% CrI 37.46–48.98%). The positive predictive values (PPV) of the three tests were similar. The serial and parallel interpretation of any test pairs increased the PPV and negative predictive value respectively close to 100%. Based on the simplicity, cost and performance as well WST and SFMT simultaneously could be recommended for the screening of caprine subclinical mastitis in Bangladesh. Keywords Caprine . Mastitis . Sensitivity . Specificity . Bayesian model
Introduction Mastitis is defined as an inflammation of the mammary gland and is considered an economically important disease in dairy Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s11250-020-02263-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Haruki Kitazawa [email protected] 1
Department of Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh
2
Food and Feed Immunology Group, Graduate School of Agricultural Science, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8572, Japan
3
Livestock Immunology Unit, International Education and Research Center for Food and Agricultural Immunology (CFAI), Graduate School of Agricultural Science, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8572, Japan
4
Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh
goats similar to the dairy cows worldwide including Bangladesh. Mastitis is caused by the intramammary infection mostly of bacterial pathogens and is categorized into clinical and subcl
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