Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis
Causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. This book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for derivin
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Louis Anthony Cox Jr. Douglas A. Popken · Richard X. Sun
Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis
International Series in Operations Research & Management Science Volume 270
Series Editor Camille C. Price Stephen F. Austin State University, TX, USA Associate Editor Joe Zhu Worcester Polytechnic Institute, MA, USA Founding Editor Frederick S. Hillier Stanford University, CA, USA
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/6161
Louis Anthony Cox Jr. • Douglas A. Popken Richard X. Sun
Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis
Louis Anthony Cox Jr. Cox Associates Denver, CO, USA
Douglas A. Popken Cox Associates Littleton, CO, USA
Richard X. Sun Cox Associates East Brunswick, NJ, USA
ISSN 0884-8289 ISSN 2214-7934 (electronic) International Series in Operations Research & Management Science ISBN 978-3-319-78240-9 ISBN 978-3-319-78242-3 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-78242-3 Library of Congress Control Number: 2018937974 © Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer International Publishing AG part of Springer Nature. The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
To Christine and Emeline
Preface
Individual, group, organizational, and public policy decisions are often disconcertingly ineffective. They produce unintended and unwanted consequences, or fail to produce intended ones, even after large expenditures of hope, time, and resources. The difficulty of achieving unambiguous successes, in which costly actions or policies produce large, clear net benefits that even those who initially doubted find compelling after the fact, has been noted in areas as varied as personal financial decisions, corporate business decisions, en
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