Characteristics of COVID-2019 in areas epidemic from imported cases
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Characteristics of COVID-2019 in areas epidemic from imported cases Wenchang Zhang1 • Jin Liu1 • Chenyun Zhang1 • Yi Sun1 • Huiling Huang2 Received: 25 February 2020 / Revised: 6 July 2020 / Accepted: 9 July 2020 Ó Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+) 2020
Abstract Objectives The outbreak of the 2019 novel coronaviruses disease (COVID-2019) in areas with epidemics due to imported cases is a cause of concern in China; however, few studies have reported on the prevalence of COVID-19 in these areas. Methods The number of diagnosed cases in Fujian Province was collected, and the time distribution of these cases was analyzed. Results The results showed that the COVID-19 prevalence in areas with epidemics due to imported cases could be divided into two stages. The first stage was an outbreak dominated by imported cases, with the data showing an obviously skewed distribution. The second stage was dominated by nonimported cases with sporadic and low-level fluctuations. Moreover, the data demonstrated that the ratio of unexplained infections to nonimported cases was increasing. Conclusions A two-stage outbreak in areas with epidemics due to imported cases, effective control of the ‘‘source of infection’’ and blocking of the transmission route can significantly minimize the peak height in the first stage and the spread of the epidemic in the second stage. Control of the epidemic in the second stage requires prevention and control of the aggregation of cases caused by unexplained infections. Keywords 2019-nCoVs Imported epidemic area Outbreak Case time distribution Fujian Province China
Introduction Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2) was identified as the infectious agent causing an outbreak of viral pneumonia (coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19) in Wuhan, China (Li et al. 2020; Special Wenchang Zhang, Jin Liu and Chenyun Zhang authors have contributed equally to this work. & Wenchang Zhang [email protected] Jin Liu [email protected] Chenyun Zhang [email protected] Yi Sun [email protected] Huiling Huang [email protected] 1
School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Xueyan Road No. 1, Minhou County, Fuzhou 350108, China
2
Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou 350001, China
Expert Group for Control of the Epidemic of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia of the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association 2020). COVID-19, which is a new infectious disease, is highly contagious and spread quickly to other provinces in China and even to other countries (World Health Organization 2020). Fujian, a province on the southeast coast of China, is home to 38.56 million people. Since the outbreak of COVID-19 at the end of 2019, approximately 100,000–120,000 travelers have entered Fujian from Wuhan. On January 22, 2020, the first imported case of COVID-19 was reported, and by February 21, 2020, a total of 293 COVID-19 cases had been confirmed in Fujian. Because the current knowledge of this virus is insufficient,
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