Coastal Risk Versus Vulnerability in an Uncertain Sea Level Future
Discussions of coastal hazards commonly use terms like risk and vulnerability interchangeably, when in fact they are much different concepts. Vulnerability describes qualities of location, structural condition, past incidence of events, and the like that
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Coastal Risk Versus Vulnerability in an Uncertain Sea Level Future Michael S. Kearney
Abstract Discussions of coastal hazards commonly use terms like risk and vulnerability interchangeably, when in fact they are much different concepts. Vulnerability describes qualities of location, structural condition, past incidence of events, and the like that render an entire coast, individual communities, or even particular coastal structures likely to suffer damage and loss and associated socioeconomic impacts. But they are not the events that cause disaster (like coastal storms, exceptionally high tides, or El Nin˜o episodes). Sea level rise and coastal storms are two phenomena especially subject to much confusion about vulnerability and risk. General predictions of future sea level rise and coastal storminess are often treated as risk factors. Apart from uncertainties in the climate and ocean models that form the basis for such predictions, forecasted rates of sea level rise really only set conditions for events like coastal storms comprising the actual hazard. Similarly, overall coastal storm histories, even compendia of actual storm tracks, just indicate the general degree of vulnerability of coasts to future storms, not the likelihood or probability of a storm landfall or even near miss (that could produce damage) in any particular year. However, if high resolution data are available to constrain hazardous, short term increases in sea level in time and space for a reach of coast, then some probabilistic determinations may be made of yearly, seasonal, or monthly risk. Equivalent risk assessments can be prepared for the probability of coastal storm impacts in any one year, assuming the same data requirements – extra-tropical storms, occurring every year are most suited for this kind of analysis. Most coasts in the developed world have data available which are capable of resolving exceptional sea level high stands and coastal storms to hourly levels of temporal resolution and, equally critically, location. It is increasingly evident that the variability in climate and sea level has displayed a sharp upswing since the
M.S. Kearney (*) Department of Environmental Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA e-mail: [email protected] C.W. Finkl (ed.), Coastal Hazards, Coastal Research Library 6, 101 DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-5234-4_4, # Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013
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M.S. Kearney
middle 1960s. This recent phase, possibly heralding a major global climate shift, is the period from which risk assessments of hazards from sea level highstands and storms should be based.
4.1
Introduction
With the threat of accelerating global sea level rise, burgeoning coastal populations worldwide, as well as growing pressures on social and social systems, assessing coastal risk has never been more important. Decision makers at all levels, whether public or private, must develop policies that best address present and future coastal development and that strike a balance between protection,
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