DEMs and reliable sea level rise risk monitoring in Nile Delta, Egypt
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DEMs and reliable sea level rise risk monitoring in Nile Delta, Egypt Tarek Abdel‑Aziz1 · Gomaa Dawod1 · Hala Ebaid1 Received: 17 September 2020 / Accepted: 19 November 2020 © The Author(s) 2020 OPEN
Abstract This research aims to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of utilizing global Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) in risk monitoring of Sea Level Rise (SLR) in the Nile delta region, Egypt. Such a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based assessment process has been carried out using high-precision terrestrial surveys to develop a new local DEM (named SRI18) to precisely identify possible inundated areas by 2025. The presented DEM comparison approach has been performed based on spatial distribution rather than the traditional point-wise method. Based on novel proposed evaluation indicators, it has been found that the reliability of three investigated global models (namely: SRTM1, ASTER, and EarthEnvi-DEM90), in delineating sea level rise flooded areas, is less than 20%. Hence, it is concluded that the utilization of global DEMs may not be optimum in the planning and management of coastal areas in the Nile delta region. Such a methodology could be applied in other low-lying deltaic areas worldwide for investigating GDEMs reliability for SLR monitoring and assessment in coastal regions. Keywords DEM · Sea level rise · Risk monitoring · GIS · Nile delta
1 Introduction Natural hazards cause significant damages, kill thousands of people, and seriously affect the sustainability of natural and human resources worldwide. Successful thought, management, and reduction of risks from natural hazards is an interdisciplinary field of risk monitoring and analysis that relies upon collecting heterogeneous precise datasets. Geomatics technologies, particularly satellite-based positioning, remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), play a crucial role in data gathering, visualization, and analysis of natural hazards risks. On a sense, sea level rise is considered as one of the most severe natural hazards threatening coastal zones all over the world in the last few decades. It is a matter of fact that sea level has been recently rising as a vital sequence of global warming and climate changes phenomena. Sea Level Rise (SLR) might be attributed mostly to greenhouse effects and the melting of glaciers and polar ice sheets. SLR constitutes one of the most noteworthy challenges facing the world mainly in coastal zones and low-lying deltaic areas. Globally, the sea level has been considerably raised in the twentieth century with reported rates equal to 1.5 for 1901–1990, 2.0 for 1971–2010, and 3.2 mm/year for 1993–2010 [1]. Furthermore, the anticipated global sea level in 2081–2100 range from 0.40 to 0.63 m relative to the 1986–2005 level (ibid). Recent estimates of global SLR indicated that its rising rate is more than doubled throughout most of the twentieth century and it may reach 0.3 m above the 2000 levels by 2100 [2]. As a result, it is expected that 190 million capita could be subjected to coastal flooding
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