Drivers, trends and scenarios for the future of health in Europe. Impressions from the FRESHER project
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Drivers, trends and scenarios for the future of health in Europe. Impressions from the FRESHER project Beatrix Wepner 1
&
Susanne Giesecke 1
Received: 15 August 2017 / Accepted: 18 November 2017 # The Author(s) 2017. This article is an open access publication
Abstract Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardio-vascular problems, diabetes, cancer, multi-skeletal disorders, depression, neurologic disorders and many more are the major cause of health problems and death in OECD countries. These diseases develop earlier among underprivileged people. Chronic-degenerative diseases, however, are to a large degree avoidable. In our foresight project FRESHER (FORESIGHT AND MODELLING FOR EUROPEAN HEALTH POLICY AND REGULATION) we discuss policy options with stakeholders from health, research, care, patient organisations, insurances and policy-making that go beyond the usual activities and pose alternatives that promise to be more successful. From an analysis of trends that affect NCD development far beyond the usual determinants of tobacco and alcohol consumption, salt, sugar and fat intake or sedentary behaviour the most relevant and significant trends are combined to four scenarios depicting possible futures. The options for alternatives presented contribute to the discussion of policies for the future in a comprehensive approach to Bhealth in all policies^ in the EU. NCDs are not a matter of medicine and health only. Thus the traditional approach of health policy has to be extended. Out of the box thinking is needed to pay tribute to the complexity of future health systems that need to include aspects like equity, literacy, mobility or urban planning. A systematic and holistic approach is required to address all drivers and determinants leading to a healthy life and well-being. Keywords Foresight . Non-communicable diseases . Public health . Health policy . Scenarios
The limits of traditional policy-making Public health is one of the greatest challenges our society and policy makers will face in the near future. It will be accompanied by demographic change, increase of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), increased burden on the health system, and shortage of money - but also by social and technological innovations. These challenges will have much greater dimensions than today. For example, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) take an ambitious and missionary approach to
* Beatrix Wepner [email protected] * Susanne Giesecke [email protected] 1
Austrian Institute of Technology, Center for Innovation Systems and Policy at the Austrian Institute of Technology, Seibersdorf, Austria
essentially transform human society and to chart the path towards promising trends, overcoming the negative trends. The nexus between the SDGs and the trends and drivers on health point towards important fields of action of policy-making as well as to societal transformation. We will only be able to cope with these challenges, if we are well prepared and broaden our perspective from health to societal d
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