Emerging Threats to Energy Security and Stability

Emerging Threats to Energy Security and Stability January 23 to January 25, 2004, Windsor Castle, UK This two-day NATO-sponsored workshop was organised by the Windsor Energy Group and MEC International Ltd with support from NATO’s Science Committee. The w

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NATO Security through Science Series A Series presenting the results of scientific meetings supported under the NATO Programme for Security through Science (STS). The Series is published by IOS Press, Amsterdam, and Springer Science and Business Media, Dordrecht, in conjunction with the NATO Public Diplomacy Division.

Sub-Series A. B. C. D. E.

Chemistry and Biology Physics and Biophysics Environmental Security Information and Communication Security Human and Societal Dynamics

(Springer Science and Business Media) (Springer Science and Business Media) (Springer Science and Business Media) (IOS Press) (IOS Press)

Meetings supported by the NATO STS Programme are in security-related priority areas of Defence Against Terrorism or Countering Other Threats to Security. The types of meeting supported are generally “Advanced Study Institutes” and “Advanced Research Workshops”. The NATO STS Series collects together the results of these meetings. The meetings are co-organized by scientists from NATO countries and scientists from NATO’s “Partner” or “Mediterranean Dialogue” countries. The observations and recommendations made at the meetings, as well as the contents of the volumes in the Series, reflect those of the participants in the workshop. They should not necessarily be regarded as reflecting NATO views or policy. Advanced Study Institutes (ASI) are high-level tutorial courses to convey the latest developments in a subject to an advanced-level audience Advanced Research Workshops (ARW) are expert meetings where an intense but informal exchange of views at the frontiers of a subject aims at identifying directions for future action Following a transformation of the programme in 2004 the Series has been re-named and re-organised. Recent volumes on topics not related to security, which result from meetings supported under the programme earlier, may be found in the NATO Science Series www.nato.int/science www.springeronline.com www.iospress.nl

Series C: Environmental Security – Vol. 1

Emerging Threats to Energy Security and Stability edited by

Hugo McPherson MEC International Ltd., London, U.K.

W. Duncan Wood Institute for Applied Science, Edinburgh, U.K. and

Derek M. Robinson Trilateral Group Ltd., London, U.K.

Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Emerging Threats to Energy Security and Stability London, United Kingdom 23-25 January 2004 A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.

ISBN-10 ISBN-13 ISBN-10 ISBN-13 ISBN-10 ISBN-13

1-4020-3568-3 (PB) 978-1-4020-3568-5 (PB) 1-4020-3566-7 (HB) 978-1-4020-3566-1 (HB) 1-4020-3567-5 (e-book) 978-1-4020-3567-8 (e-book)

Published by Springer, P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, The Netherlands.

www.springeronline.com

Printed on acid-free paper

All Rights Reserved © 2005 Springer No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with