Empirical seismic fragility models for Nepalese school buildings
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Empirical seismic fragility models for Nepalese school buildings Nicola Giordano1 · Flavia De Luca1 · Anastasios Sextos1 · Fernando Ramirez Cortes2 · Carina Fonseca Ferreira2 · Jingzhe Wu2 Received: 15 April 2020 / Accepted: 5 September 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Empirical vulnerability models are fundamental tools to assess the impact of future earthquakes on urban settlements and communities. Generally, they consist of sets of fragility curves that are derived from georeferenced post-earthquake damage data. Following the 2015 Nepal earthquake sequence, the World Bank, through the Global Program for Safer Schools, conducted a Structural Integrity and Damage Assessment (SIDA) of about 18,000 school buildings in the earthquake-affected area. In this work, the database is utilized to identify the main structural characteristics of the Nepalese school building stock. For the first time, extended SIDA school damage data is processed to derive fragility curves for the main structural typologies. Data sets for each structural typology are used for a Bayesian updating of existing fragilities to obtain regional models for Nepalese schools. These fragility estimates can be adopted to assess potential seismic losses of the school infrastructure in Nepal. Additionally, they can be used for calibrating loss assessment studies in the wider Himalayan region where the structural typologies are similar. Keywords Empirical fragility · Earthquake damage · School buildings · Bayesian updating · Structural Integrity and Damage Assessment (SIDA) database · Global Program for Safer Schools (GPSS) · Nepal
1 Introduction According to the last Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR 2019), since 1990, 92% of human losses from natural disasters have occurred in lowto-middle-income countries. Low-income nations, with limited resilience against catastrophes, have also sustained larger relative asset losses with respect to advanced economies. Earthquakes, on average, have accounted for 20% of annual economic losses due to natural catastrophes. Despite those figures, international development aid for * Nicola Giordano [email protected] 1
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Queen’s Building, Bristol BS8 1TR, UK
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The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433, USA
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Natural Hazards
disaster risk reduction still represents a slim percentage (3.8%) of the funding that is made available for post-disaster response. As outlined in the Sendai Framework (UNISDR 2015), “while the drivers of disaster risk may be local, national, regional or global in scope, disaster risks have local and specific characteristics that must be understood for the determination of measures to reduce disaster risk”. This is particularly valid in low-income contexts where risk data scarcity remains a major issue (Robinson et al. 2018), and there is a tendency to perform risk assessments with models from other regional contexts. Referring to the education sector, a consisten
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