Failing States, Collapsing Systems BioPhysical Triggers of Political
This work executes a unique transdisciplinary methodology building on the author’s previous book, A User’s Guide to the Crisis of Civilization: And How to Save it (Pluto, 2010), which was the first peer-reviewed study to establish a social science framewo
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Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed
Failing States, Collapsing Systems BioPhysical Triggers of Political Violence 123
SpringerBriefs in Energy Energy Analysis
Series Editor Charles Hall College of Environmental, SUNY ESF, Syracuse, NY, USA
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/10041
Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed
Failing States, Collapsing Systems BioPhysical Triggers of Political Violence
Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed Global Sustainability Institute Anglia Ruskin University Cambridge, UK
ISSN 2191-5520 ISSN 2191-5539 (electronic) SpringerBriefs in Energy ISBN 978-3-319-47814-2 ISBN 978-3-319-47816-6 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-47816-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 2016955192 © The Author(s) 2017 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Contents
1
Introduction .............................................................................................
1
2
The Crisis of Civilization as an Analytical Framework ...................... 2.1 The Human-Environment System as a Complex Adaptive System .............................................................................. 2.2 The Energy Metabolism of Human Civilization .............................. 2.3 The Physics of System Failure .........................................................
7 7 9 11
3
Net Energy Decline ................................................................................. 3.1 The Decline of Conventional Oil ..................................................... 3.2 The Rise and Decline of Unconventional Oil and Gas .................... 3.3 The Rise and Decline of Shale Gas.................................................. 3.4 The Decline of Coal and Uranium ................................................... 3.5 Peak and Terminal Decline of Net Energy
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