Future Arctic Field Notes from a World on the Edge

In one hundred years, or even fifty, the Arctic will look dramatically different than it does today. As polar ice retreats and animals and plants migrate northward, the arctic landscape is morphing into something new and very different from what it once w

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FUTURE ARCTIC Edward Struzik

Future Arctic

Future Arctic Field Notes from a World on the Edge

Edward Struzik

Washington | Covelo | London

Copyright © 2015 Edward Struzik All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the publisher: Island Press, 2000 M Street, NW, Suite 650, Washington, DC 20036 Island Press is a trademark of The Center for Resource Economics. Library of Congress Control Number: 2014948287 Printed on recycled, acid-free paper Manufactured in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Keywords: Arctic Council, Peace-Athabasca delta, avian cholera, Bering Sea, British Columbia, cackling goose, Canada goose, caribou, Chinchaga fire, Chukchi Sea, Churchill, cod, Ellef Ringnes, Exxon Valdez, Greenland, grizzly bear, Hudson Bay, hybridization, Ice Age, Inuit, Mackenzie delta, narwhal, Norwegian Polar Institute, ocean current, orca, peregrine falcon, polar bear, salmon, Shishmaref, snow goose, snowy owl, Svalbard, Tuktoyaktuk, wolf, wood bison, Yukon Territory

To my wife, Julia, and to my children, Jacob and Sigrid, who have participated in a number of my Arctic expeditions. Those are the journeys north that I treasure most. To the people who live in the Arctic, my thanks for your hospitality and for sharing your insights.

Contents

Introduction Chapter 1:

1 Eight-Foot-Long Beavers, Scimitar Cats, and Woolly Mammoths: What the Past Tells Us about the Future Arctic

11

Chapter 2:

Oil and Ice

25

Chapter 3:

The Arctic Ocean: A Sleeping Giant Wakes Up

43

Chapter 4:

Stormy Arctic: The New Normal

59

Chapter 5:

The Arctic Melting Pot

75

Chapter 6:

Lords of the Arctic No More

89

Chapter 7:

Caribou at the Crossroads

109

Chapter 8:

Paradise Lost

129

Chapter 9:

Drill, Baby, Drill

143

Chapter 10: The Need for an Arctic Treaty

165

Chapter 11: Conclusion

181

Acknowledgments

195

About the Author

199

150

180

n tia eu Al

North Pacific

150

Islands

r il I Ku

PetropavlovskKamchatskiy

Bering Sea

Ocean

slands

Sakhalin

Okhotsk Oymyakon

Yu ko

60

Fairbanks

lyma R. Ko

a it

Whitehorse

UNI TED STATES n R.

Khabarovsk

Magadan

g S tr rin Be

Valdez

Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta Anadyr’ Anchorage Providenlya Nome

50

Sea of Okhotsk Gulf of Alaska

JAPAN

Chukchi Pevek AR Cherskly CT Sea IC Yakutsk CI Barrow Wrangel R East Prudhoe Bay Island Verkhoyansk Siberian 120 Mackenzie Delta Sea Beaufort Sea Great Slave Great Bear Tuktoyaktuk Lake Lake Tiksi New Yellowknife Siberian Banks Ballast Brook Islands Athabasca Island Laptev Lake Victoria Sea Island Arctic Queen Borden Cambridge Island C A N A D A Bay Severnaya Ocean RUSSIA Elizabeth Ellef Ringnes Kangiqcliniq Zemlya Island Qausuittuq (Franklin Inlet) (Resolute) 90 W nisey R. 90 E Noril’sk Islands Ye North Hudson Ellesmere Repulse Pole Arctic Bay Island Dikson Bay Franz Bay Alert Josef Kara Baffin Qaanaaq Land Sea Island (Thule) Baffin Svalbard Nord Bay (NORWAY) Novaya Ob Zemlya Iqaluit