Heavy-Tailed Distributions in Disaster Analysis
Mathematically, natural disasters of all types are characterized by heavy tailed distributions. The analysis of such distributions with common methods, such as averages and dispersions, can therefore lead to erroneous conclusions. The statistical methods
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Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research Volume 30
For other titles published in this series go to http://www.springer.com/series/6362
V. Pisarenko
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M. Rodkin
Heavy-Tailed Distributions in Disaster Analysis
Dr. V. Pisarenko International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow, Russia [email protected]
Dr. M. Rodkin International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow, Russia [email protected]
Revised and updated edition of the book in Russian by V. Pisarenko and M. Rodkin, âRaspredeleniya s tyazelym khvostom: prilozeniya k analizu katastrophâ, as part of the book series Vichislitelnaya Seismologiya, Issue 38, Moscow, GEOS, 2007, 240 pp. ISBN 978-90-481-9170-3 e-ISBN 978-90-481-9171-0 DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-9171-0 Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2010931864 # Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010 No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
Introduction
The end of the twenty-first century saw a dramatically increased interest in safety and reduction of losses from natural and manmade disasters. The cause of this was the combination of a strongly felt social need and the appearance of new theoretical approaches that have significantly progressed in this important interdisciplinary area of study. We wish to emphasize that the increased social need was caused, not only by the (conventionally stressed) growth of the losses due to natural and manmade disasters, but also by the growing interrelationships between different regions of the world. To take one example, the seismic disasters which occurred in China in 1920 and 1927 and entailed the loss of about 200,000 lives each, went almost unnoticed in Europe and in the rest of the world. The similar-sized seismic disasters of 1976 and 2004 which occurred in China again and in Sumatra reverberated throughout the world and stimulated the development of geophysical research and major national and international measures taken to reduce the losses due to possible reoccurrence of such events. The energy of even a moderate-sized natural disaster and the associated losses is very large. The number of casualties and the loss due to significant natural disasters are comparable with those resulting from regional military conflicts. The energy of natural disasters still exceeds the energy potential of mankind. For example, the yield of the largest nuclear bomb (58 megatons of TNT) detonated in 1961 was 24 1023 ergs, w
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