How Much Yield Should We Expect from Fast-Growing Plantations for Energy? Divergences Between Experiments and Commercial
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How Much Yield Should We Expect from Fast-Growing Plantations for Energy? Divergences Between Experiments and Commercial Willow Plantations Blas Mola-Yudego 1,2 & Olalla Díaz-Yáñez 3 & Ioannis Dimitriou 2
Published online: 5 June 2015 # Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015
Abstract How representative are yields from experimental plots compared to large-scale commercial implementation? This study analyses the yields of fast-growing willow plantations for energy reported in experimental trials in Sweden during the period 1980–2012 compared with those from commercial willow plantations for the period 1986–2006. The study reviews 16 academic publications, which include 466 records from experimental plots, and records from 2073 commercial plantations across the country. The average yield recorded from experiments was 7.7 odt ha−1 year−1, compared to commercial plantations’ yields 2.6 and 4.2 odt ha−1 year−1 for the first and second rotations, respectively. The measured area of the experimental plots seems to have an effect in the overestimation of the average yields, which can be attributed to extrapolation errors. In addition, to explain the broad differences between yield estimates, we identify the following as potential factors: near-optimal management practices and choice of land age differences and rotation lengths, edge effects, measurement methods, harvesting losses, increased mortality, and increased probability of hazard. The results can help to rationalize the expectations derived from
* Blas Mola-Yudego [email protected]; [email protected] 1
Norwegian Forest and Landscape Institute, P.O. Box, 115, 1431 Ås, Norway
2
Department of Crop Production Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), P.O. Box 7016, SE-75007 Uppsala, Sweden
3
School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, PO Box 111, 80101 Joensuu, Finland
experiments and to a more realistic planning of future plantation schemes. Keywords Biomass . Bioenergy . Short rotation forestry . Energy crops
Introduction How much biomass should be expected from energy crops once they reach commercial stage? A good yield prognosis is an important tool for reliable energy policies and for a successful introduction of energy crops [1]. Accurate yield estimates at local or national level are required, e.g., for the construction of scenarios (e.g., [2]), policy incentives (e.g., [3]), profitability estimates (e.g., [4–6]), or even environmental assessment (e.g.,[7, 8]). However, many energy crops are to a certain extend new cropping systems and lack the necessary commercial experience to get empirical data. For this reason, initial estimates and models must rely on results from experimental plots or trials. Among lignocellulosic energy crops, this has been the case for short rotation plantations. Such plantations are based on fast-growing woody species (such as poplar and willow) established on agricultural land. The plantations are intensively managed for the provision of biomass for energy, and for the several enviro
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