Hurricane damage assessment for residential construction considering the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and fre
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Hurricane damage assessment for residential construction considering the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and frequency WANG Cao1, LI Quanwang1*, PANG Long1, ZOU Aming1, ZHANG Long2 1 Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China 2 CCCC Highway Consultants CO., Ltd., Beijing 100088, China
Received 28 September 2015; accepted 31 December 2015 ©The Chinese Society of Oceanography and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016
Abstract
Natural hazards such as hurricanes may cause extensive economic losses and social disruption for civil structures and infrastructures in coastal areas, implying the importance of understanding the construction performance subjected to hurricanes and assessing the hurricane damages properly. The intensity and frequency of hurricanes have been reported to change with time due to the potential impact of climate change. In this paper, a probability-based model of hurricane damage assessment for coastal constructions is proposed taking into account the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and frequency. The nonhomogeneous Poisson process is employed to model the non-stationarity in hurricane occurrence while the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity is reflected by the time-variant statistical parameters (e.g., mean value and/or standard deviation), with which the mean value and variation of the cumulative hurricane damage are evaluated explicitly. The Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA, is chosen to illustrate the hurricane damage assessment method proposed in this paper. The role of non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and occurrence rate due to climate change in hurricane damage is investigated using some representative changing patterns of hurricane parameters. Key words: hurricane, damage assessment, intensity, frequency, non-stationarity, climate change Citation: Wang Cao, Li Quanwang, Pang Long, Zou Aming, Zhang Long. 2016. Hurricane damage assessment for residential construction considering the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and frequency. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 35(12): 110–118, doi: 10.1007/s13131016-0828-7
1 Introduction In recent years, social and economic damages caused by extreme weather or climate events have increased dramatically, which has raised great concern among the public. Hurricanes are among such extreme events impacting the residential construction in coastal areas (Katz, 2002; Li and Ellingwood, 2006; Lin et al., 2012; Xu et al., 2014). For instance, hurricane Katrina of 2005 caused more than US$100 billion in losses and resulted in about 2 000 fatalities with the greatest coastal flood height ever recorded in the United States. Hurricane Soulik of 2013 landed at Fujian Province of China on July 13, and caused more than RMB 1.77 billion in losses (approximately 0.285 billion in US$) and about 1.03 million citizens homeless, according to a survey conducted by the Fujian government. Importantly, the coastal areas have a steady increase in population and insured property with the rapid development of social economy,
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