Impact of climate change on the wheat-growing season over Iran
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Impact of climate change on the wheat-growing season over Iran Gholamreza Roshan & Ruhollah Oji & Sultan Al-Yahyai
Received: 15 January 2013 / Accepted: 11 March 2013 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2013
Abstract The objective of this paper is to derive and analyze the present and future climate projections over the region of wheat production over Iran. In addition, the projected future climate fluctuation results will be used to assist the maximum performance of wheat and to be used as the main basis for planning changes in the farming calendar in Iran. Observed climate (temperature and degree day) changes during the period (1951–2009) will be discussed. Projected future changes up to 2100 based on the MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3 compound model was utilized. Furthermore, 18 scenarios were used to derive a single GCM model referred to as the United Kingdom Hadley Center Global Environment Model, which will be used to select the worst, best, and average scenario. Keywords GCM . Degree day . Growing season length . Wheat . Autumn . Iran
Introduction According to the recent report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global temperature will increase 0.6–2.5 °C within the next 50 years and will increase 1.1–6.4 °C by the end of this century. Significantly higher G. Roshan (*) Department of Geography, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran e-mail: [email protected] R. Oji Department of Geography, University of Modarres, Tehran, Iran e-mail: [email protected] S. Al-Yahyai Oman National Weather Service, Public Authority for Civil Aviation, Muscat, Oman e-mail: [email protected]
increases are expected in regional scale (IPCC 2007). However, the climate change in some of the regions of the globe especially in latitudes higher than 55 north and south will has a positive impact on agriculture (Ewert et al. 2005) but with significant devastating impact on the torrid zones (Gregory et al. 2005; Ghanghermeh et al. 2013; Parry et al. 2004; Sivakumar et al. 2005; Stern 2006). This will bring more temperature and less precipitation for developing countries (Sivakumar et al. 2005; Stern 2006) and higher frequency of uncommon climactic phenomena (draught, heat, cold, and floods) (Tyson et al. 2002; IPCC 2007). An increase in carbon dioxide is responsible for the increase in photosynthesis and consequent increase in the activity of most of farm plants (Burkart et al. 2004; Ainsworth and Long 2005; Kimbal et al. 2002; Fuhrer 2003). However, it seems that different aspects of climate change have different impacts on the production and performance of farm plants which may increase or decrease the farm yield. Thus, the pure impact of climate change on performance will depend on the mutual impact of these factors (Krishnan et al. 2007). Despite the convincing proofs that doubling the carbon dioxide would increase performance of farm plants (Kimbal et al. 2002), studies showed that the expected increase in performance will not take place due to the increase in temperature (Sivakumar et al. 2005; Prasad et al
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