Modeling the natural regeneration of Cedrus libani A. Richard in Slenfeh, Syria, using binary logistic regression
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Modeling the natural regeneration of Cedrus libani A. Richard in Slenfeh, Syria, using binary logistic regression Abeer Ibrahem1 · Emad Koubaily2 · Ali Thabeet3 Received: 25 May 2020 / Accepted: 5 August 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract Background Species distributions and abundances are undergoing rapid changes worldwide. This highlights the significance of reliable, integrated information for guiding and assessing actions and policies aimed at managing and sustaining the many functions and benefits of species. Mapping and monitoring of forest extent is a common requirement of regional forest inventories and public land natural resource management which requires generation of an accurate database on spatial forest structure distribution and environmental variables. Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology is an effective tool in modern management programs for forest ecosystems. The environmental factors which probably affect in the natural regeneration of Cedrus libani A. Richard in its natural distribution forest in Slenfeh, Syria, were modeled using the binary logistic regression (BLR) model. The effect of environmental factors (spatial and forest structure factors, topographic factors, and spectral indicators) was studied, each one as single set and then their combined effect with each other on the probability of the presence of C. libani seedlings in Slenfeh. Results The accuracy of the model was clearly improved by studying the effect of environmental factors combined together (84%), while the accuracy of the other studied models did not exceed 70%. Conclusion The results showed that the forest cover (Cedrus libani, broad leaved except oaks, mixed) is considered a good condition for natural regeneration of C. libani, while the lack of soil moisture in summer was a negative factor in the possibility of the presence of C. libani seedlings in Slenfeh. Keywords Modeling · Natural regeneration · Cedrus libani · Binary logistic regression · Remote sensing · Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
Background Lebanon cedar (Cedrus libani A. Rich.) is confined to the Eastern Mediterranean region, forming in the past extensive and magnificent forests in Syria, Lebanon and Turkey, which were an important source of wood for successive human civilizations (Loffet 2004). Today, it is only small forest * Abeer Ibrahem [email protected]; [email protected] Ali Thabeet [email protected] 1
Department of Forestry and Environment, Agriculture Faculty, Tishreen University, Lttakia, Syria
2
Department of Ecology and Forestry, Tishreen University, Lttakia, Syria
3
Departement of renewable natural resources and ecology, Aleppo University, Aleppo, Syria
populations as a result of the extensive human exploitation of its forests for the past 5000 years, mainly of heavy cutting, burning, and goat grazing (Boydak 2003). These populations have been genetically isolated since the last Quaternary glacial cycle; they have been threatened by ext
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