Modelling Environmental Dynamics Advances in Geomatic Solutions
Modelling environmental dynamics is critical to understanding and predicting the evolution of the environment in response to the large number of influences including urbanisation, climate change and deforestation. Simulation and modelling provide support
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rtin Paegelow · María Teresa Camacho Olmedo (Eds.)
Modelling Environmental Dynamics Advances in Geomatic Solutions With 122 Figures, 17 in color
Prof. Martin Paegelow Université de Toulouse II GEODE UMR 5602 CNRS Maison de la Recherche 5 allées Antonio Machado 31058 Toulouse France [email protected]
ISBN: 978-3-540-68489-3
Prof. María Teresa Camacho Olmedo Universidad de Granada Dpto. de Análisis Geográfico Regional y Geografía Física Campus de Cartuja, s/n 18071 Granada Spain [email protected]
e-ISBN: 978-3-540-68498-5
Environmental Science and Engineering ISSN: 1863-5520 Library of Congress Control Number: 2008931312 c 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Cover Design: Integra Software Services Pvt. Ltd. Printed on acid-free paper 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 springer.com
Foreword
Humans have always created and used environmental models, whether the models are expressed as traditional fables that are designed to convey ancient wisdom concerning how we should interact with nature or as computerized algorithms that are designed to give advice concerning the how we should draft environmental legislation. In both cases, the models express what we think we know about human-environment interactions and what the implications are for natural resource management. In both cases, scenarios are commonly used as communication device, since a scenario is a story about the way the future could unfold, based on the consequences of human decisions. A major difference between today’s models and previous models is that digital technology is now available to help to organize the story teller’s thoughts and to communicate the teller’s messages. Today’s digital modelling techniques can have substantial influence on both the people designing the stories, e.g. the scientists, and the people interpreting the stories, e.g. the decision makers and the public. Some of today’s models, such as those that produce weather forecasts, are so common that both the scientists and the public seem to interpret them with ease. For example, people who have access to the internet can easily see a map of a weather forecast and usually know intuitively how much trust they can have in the prediction for their particula
