Modern Changes in Hydrological Regime and Water Supply in the Moscow Region
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rn Changes in Hydrological Regime and Water Supply in the Moscow Region M. V. Bolgova*, I. A. Filippovaa, and M. A. Kharlamova a
Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Gubkina 3, Moscow, 119333 Russia *e-mail: [email protected] Received January 28, 2020 Revised February 28, 2020 Accepted March 2, 2020
Abstract—The changes in the hydrological regime of rivers in the Moscow region occurred under global warming. It is expressed in the redistribution of runoff within a year: an increase in minimum runoff and a decrease in flood runoff. The analysis of the series of the inflow to the Moskvoretskaya system reservoirs revealed stationarity disturbances in the studied series for the period of 1978–1980. This was followed by a change in the characteristics of runoff regulation carried out for water supply in the Moscow region. It is shown that the inflow changes led to the statistical heterogeneity of the series of regulation characteristics, including the total live storage and water deficiency. The Bayesian method is proposed for obtaining statistical characteristics of nonstationary series of the inflow and yield of the Moskvoretskaya system reservoirs. DOI: 10.3103/S1068373920080038 Keywords: Climate change, nonstationary series, runoff regulation, “mixture of distributions,” Moskvoretskaya reservoir system
1. INTRODUCTION In modern conditions water supply in Moscow is provided by runoff from the Moskva and Volga rivers and artesian springs. The runoff of the Moskva River and its tributaries is regulated by the reservoirs of the Moskvoretskaya hydroeconomic system: the Istra, Mozhaisk, Ruza, abd Ozerna reservoirs. Water from them flows to the Rublevo water intake structure through the Moskva River. The system is intended both for water supply in Moscow and for the reduction of high-water and flood discharges of the Moskva River within the city, for the sanitary flooding of the river during the low-water period, for the provision of navigable guaranteed depths, and for electricity generation. The system of four reservoirs performs a long-term compensated runoff regulation by reducing releases to the tail water of hydrosystems during the periods when runoff from an uncontrolled part of the catchment increases. The regimes of using reservoir water resources are determined by the dispatcher regulations developed in the 1970s. The main dispatcher regulation rule for the Moskva River runoff upstream of the Rublevo dam is that the volume of water releases from these reservoirs should complement the lateral inflow to the value of the guaranteed discharge. The dispatcher regulation provides the homogeneous consumption of water from reservoirs and takes into account the inflow to them. The order and depth of reservoir drawdown in the second half of winter depend on the expected volume of spring runoff. The rules take into account water storage before the beginning of spring flood, water demand of the complex of serviced water users, as well as expected hydrological conditions and their possible deviations from
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