Optimal oil stockpiling, peak oil, and general equilibrium: case study of South Asia (oil importers) and Middle East (oi
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Optimal oil stockpiling, peak oil, and general equilibrium: case study of South Asia (oil importers) and Middle East (oil supplier) Muhammad Khalid Anser 1 & Qaiser Abbas 2 & Imran Sharif Chaudhry 3 & Arman Khan 4 Received: 14 January 2020 / Accepted: 12 March 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Optimal stockpiling is the best possible strategy to overcome the problem of peak oil periods of oil producer economies. We measured the properties of strategic petroleum oil reserve and general equilibrium and its peak oil effects. Measured the optimized scales of SPR through using oil price model, global oil market, and depletion effects of oil production classification. The peak oil period occurs from the interection between the geological era, proficiency in a practical skill, economy of consumers, and geopolitics, and the quality of deciding of demand and supply in which we have done a general dynamic balance model. Results reveal that peak oil time periods may lead towards diverse oil prices time profiles, economic development, and commodity flows. Interestingly, the macroeconomic effects of peak oil and the trajectories in objective function of two options maximize the households’ welfare and oil revenues and its effect on growth trajectories of oil-consuming countries. If an oil supply disruption happens, the rate of oil acquisition will be considerably decreased, though it may not be a good strategy to interrupt the activities of oil reserve with the aim of minimizing the overall costs. Keywords Optimal stockpiling . Peak oil . General equilibrium . Oil importer . Oil exporter
Introduction South Asia accommodates approximately 25% of the world’s population. There is a growing energy demand in highly condensed populated areas of South Asia, and since crude oil is Responsible editor: Philippe Garrigues * Qaiser Abbas [email protected] Muhammad Khalid Anser [email protected] Imran Sharif Chaudhry [email protected] Arman Khan [email protected] 1
Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an, China
2
Department of Economics, Ghazi University, D.G Khan, Pakistan
3
School of Economics, Bahauddin Zakriya University, Multan, Punjab 60800, Pakistan
4
Department of Business Administration, Shaheed Benazir Bhutto University, Shaheed Benazirabad, Pakistan
the major contributor for energy generation in the region, oil consumption in South Asia is expected to grow by about 6% in the coming years. In particular, more than 140% enhancement in India’s energy demand is expected in the coming years as compared to a 55% increase in the world (Kumar Singh 2013). Additionally, the oil reserves in the region are not uniformly distributed, where India holds the highest oil reserves of 5700 million barrels of crude oil compared to Pakistan and Sri Lanka with 324 million and 150 million barrels, respectively. However, the current oil reserves are insufficient to satisfy the demand of a population of approximately 2 billion (Mohsin et al. 2018b). South A
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