Population migration, confirmed COVID-19 cases, pandemic prevention, and control: evidence and experiences from China
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Population migration, confirmed COVID-19 cases, pandemic prevention, and control: evidence and experiences from China Hualei Yang 1 & Sen Hu 2 & Xiaodong Zheng 3 & Yuanyang Wu 1 & Xueyu Lin 1 & Lin Xie 4 & Zheng Shen 5 Received: 2 May 2020 / Accepted: 15 October 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Aim The virulence of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has facilitated its rapid transition towards becoming a pandemic. Hence, this study aims to investigate the association between population migration and the number of confirmed COVID19 cases in China while investigating its measures for pandemic prevention and control. Subject and methods A susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered–dormancy (SEIRD) model for the spread of COVID-19 in China was created to theoretically simulate the relationship between the populations migrating from Wuhan and the number of confirmed cases. Data from Baidu’s real-time dynamic pandemic monitoring system were elicited to empirically examine the theoretical inferences. Results Populations migrating from Wuhan to other cities increased the initial number of latently infected cases in these cities, raising the number of confirmed cases. Hence, implementing social distancing between the susceptible and infected populations could effectively lower the number of infected cases. Using data from Baidu’s real-time dynamic pandemic monitoring system, the empirical results revealed that an increase of 1000 persons migrating from Wuhan raised the number of confirmed cases by 4.82 persons. Conclusion This study confirmed the positive association between population migration and the number of confirmed COVID19 cases. Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis, China’s pandemic prevention and control measures are discussed. Keywords Wuhan . Novel coronavirus disease . SEIRD model . COVID-19 . Prevention and control . Pandemic
Introduction In December 2019, three patients with cases of pneumonia, originating from an unknown cause, emerged from Wuhan
* Xiaodong Zheng [email protected] 1
School of Public Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, China
2
School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
3
School of Economics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, No.18 Xuezheng Street, Xiasha New Higher Education Park, Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China
4
Institution of Population and Labor Economics, The Chinese Academy of Social Science, Beijing 100028, China
5
School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China
City’s Huanan Seafood Market. They were admitted to Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital for treatment and all three patients were all diagnosed with the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Since then, COVID-19 has gained public attention (Huang et al. 2020a, b; Guan et al. 2020; Li et al. 2020; Wang and Jin 2020). As populations heavily migrated in China due to the New Year’s fe
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