Probabilistic Assessment of Model Uncertainty for Prediction of Pile Foundation Bearing Capacity; Static Analysis, SPT a
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Probabilistic Assessment of Model Uncertainty for Prediction of Pile Foundation Bearing Capacity; Static Analysis, SPT and CPT-Based Methods Sara Heidarie Golafzani . Abolfazl Eslami . Reza Jamshidi Chenari
Received: 10 January 2019 / Accepted: 7 May 2020 Ó Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract Geotechnical designs, like other engineering disciplines, are always accompanied by uncertainties. Supplying continuous and reliable records and reducing the uncertainty associated with measurement errors, the cone penetration test (CPT) enhances the geotechnical designs to a more decent level. Deep foundation design, as an essential challenge of foundation engineering, is also involved with different sources of uncertainty. Moreover, the presence of various design methods, relying on different assumptions and requirements, introduces further complications to the selection of an appropriate method, which leads to the broad spectrum of the predictions. Hence, a database, including 60 driven pile load test results and CPT records in the vicinity of them, was compiled to investigate the model uncertainties embedded in various predictive approaches. Investigated
S. Heidarie Golafzani Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology (AUT), Tehran, Iran e-mail: [email protected] A. Eslami Department of Civil Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology (AUT), Tehran, Iran e-mail: [email protected] R. Jamshidi Chenari (&) Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Guilan, P.O. 3756, Rasht, Guilan, Iran e-mail: [email protected]
approaches include two static analyses, five SPT, and five CPT-based methods, and were implemented to predict axial pile bearing capacity. The model parameters for these methods are investigated through seven statistical, probabilistic, and reliability-based criteria. Performance of the methods under these criteria is assessed by the use of radar charts. Moreover, the resistance factor, adopted in this study to estimate the efficiency ratio and actual factor of safety, is calibrated by four different prevailing methods. Eventually, among conventional available predictive methods, CPT-based methods perform better than others and result in cost-effective and optimized trends. Keywords Uncertainty Bearing capacity CPT LRFD Reliability Driven piles SPT Static analysis
1 Introduction Geotechnical engineering is associated with uncertainty due to the presence of soil mass and its complicated behavior in various circumstances. By various natural geologic processes, soil properties vary horizontally and vertically in a specific site, and this affects the efficiency and repeatability of in-situ and lab measurements as well. On the other hand, the
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Geotech Geol Eng
reliability of a geotechnical design depends on the reliability of input values of soil properties and the related geotechnical model in the analyses. In this regard, primary sources
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