Probability and Causality Essays in Honor of Wesley C. Salmon
The contributions to this special collection concern issues and problems discussed in or related to the work of Wesley C. Salmon. Salmon has long been noted for his important work in the philosophy of science, which has included research on the interpreta
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SYNTHESE LIBRARY
STUDIES IN EPISTEM OLOGY, LOGIC, METHODOLOGY, AND PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE
Managing Editor: JAAKKO HINTIKKA,
Florida State University, Tallahassee
Editors: DON A L D D A V IDS 0 N, University of California, Berkeley GABRIEL NUCHELMANS, University of Leyden WE S LEY C. SAL M 0 N, University of Pittsburgh
VOLUME 192
WESLEY C. SALMON (Photograph by Barbara Boylan)
PROBABILITY AND CAUSALITY Essays in Honor of Wesley C. Salmon With an Annotated Bibliography by Wesley C. Salmon
Edited by
JAMES H. FETZER University of Minnesota, Duluth
D. REIDEL PUBLISHING COMPANY A MEMBER OF THE KLUWER
~
ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS GROUP
DORDRECHT/BOSTON/LANCASTER/TOKYO
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Probability and causality. (Synthese library; v. 192) Bibliography: p. Includes indexes. 1. Science - Philosphy. 2. Probabilities. 3. Causation. I. Salmon, Wesley C. II. Fetzer, James H., 1940- . III. Title. IV. Series. 87-28689 Q175.3.P758 1987 501 ISBN-13: 978-1-55608-052-4 e-ISBN-13: 978-94-009-3997-4 DOl: 10.1007/978-94-009-3997-4
Published by D. Reidel Publishing Company, P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, Holland. Sold and Distributed in the U.SA. and Canada by Kluwer Academic Publishers, 101 Philip Drive, Norwell, MA 02061, U.S.A. In all other countries, sold and distributed by Kluwer Academic Publishers Group, P.O. Box 322, 3300 AH Dordrecht, Holland.
All Rights Reserved © 1988 by D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1988 No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner
To Wesley C. Salmon
TABLE OF CONTENTS
xi
FOREWORD
PROLOGUE C. SALMON I Dynamic Rationality: Propensity, Probability, and Credence
WESLEY
3
PART I: PROBABILITY, CAUSALITY, AND MODALITY WILLIAM EDWARD MORRIS
tive Probabilism ABNER SHIMONY
I Hume's Refutation of Induc-
I An Adamite Derivation of the Principles
of the Calculus of Probability
ILKKA NIINIL UOTO I Probability, Possibility, and Plenitude JAMES H. FETZER I Probabilistic Metaphysics WA YNE A. DA VIS I Probabilistic Theories of Causation BRIAN SKYRMS I Conditional Chance
43
79 91 109 133 161
PART II: PROBABILITY, CAUSALITY, AND DECISION
I How to Tell a Common Cause: Generalizations of the Conjunctive Fork Criterion ELLERY EELLS I Probabilistic Causal Interaction and Disjunctive Causal Factors ELLIOTT SOBER I The Principle of the Common Cause D. H. MELLOR IOn Raising the Chances of Effects RICHARD JEFFREY I How to Probabilize a Newcomb Problem PAUL HUMPHREYS I Non-Nietzschean Decision Making
NANCY CARTWRIGHT
ix
181 189 211
229 241 253
x
TABLE OF CONTENTS EPILOGUE
WESLEY C. SALMON /
graphy
Publications: An Annotated Biblio-
271
INDEX OF NAMES
337
INDEX OF SUBJECTS
342
FOREWORD
The contributions to this special collection concern issues and problems
