Risk Characterization and Evaluation
Risk characterization and evaluation aims at making judgement about risk acceptability and/or tolerability. This step follows after the appraisal stage and is undertaken in order to serve two main purposes: 1.First, to reach a balanced, value-based judgem
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Risk Characterization and Evaluation
7.1
Overview of Characterization and Evaluation
Risk characterization and evaluation aims at making judgement about risk acceptability and/or tolerability. This step follows after the appraisal stage and is undertaken in order to serve two main purposes: l
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First, to reach a balanced, value-based judgement on the tolerability/acceptability of risk or to perform a trade-off analysis of a set of functional equivalents (of the product, process, or practice under consideration). Second, to initiate (if deemed necessary) a management process and make preliminary suggestions for the most suitable management approach.
Risk is evaluated in our framework using the analogue of a traffic light (HSE 2001; Bandle 2007). Red signals intolerable, yellow tolerable and green acceptable (see Fig. 7.1). The term “tolerable” refers to an activity that is seen as warranted on the grounds of associated benefits, yet which requires additional measures in order to reduce the threat below reasonable limits. The term “acceptable” refers to an activity where any residual threat is so low that additional measures for mitigating the threat are not seen as necessary. To draw the line between “intolerable” and “tolerable” as well as “tolerable” and “acceptable” is one of the most difficult tasks in risk governance. The tolerability or acceptability judgement is informed by the results of the appraisal process (leading to risk characterization) but they do not determine it. Other important considerations on wider social and economic factors may be included in the balancing evaluation process. The main elements of this process are: l
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Summarizing the results of the appraisal process in terms of a risk description, which includes the likely consequences for human health, technical systems, ecosystem stability or other relevant endpoints if no management measures were taken, as well as characterizations of uncertainties. Deliberation over these results in consideration of wider social and economic factors (e.g. benefits, societal needs, quality of life factors, sustainability,
T. Aven and O. Renn, Risk Management and Governance, Risk, Governance and Society 16, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-13926-0_7, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010
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7 Risk Characterization and Evaluation Uncertainties, likelihood
Risk reduction required (yellow)
Intolerable (red)
Extent of consequences Acceptable (green)
Fig. 7.1 Acceptable, tolerable and intolerable risks (traffic light model)
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distribution of risks and benefits, social mobilization and conflict potential, legal requirements and policy imperatives). Weighing of pros and cons and trading-off of different (sometimes competing or even conflicting) preferences, interests and values.
While risk characterization compiles scientific evidence based on the results from the risk appraisal phase, risk evaluation assesses broader value-based issues that also influence the judgement. Such issues, which include questions such as the choice of technology, societ
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