Risk Factors for Violent Dissident Republican Incidents in Belfast: A Comparison of Bombings and Bomb Hoaxes
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Risk Factors for Violent Dissident Republican Incidents in Belfast: A Comparison of Bombings and Bomb Hoaxes Zoe Marchment1 · Paul Gill1 · John Morrison2
© The Author(s) 2019
Abstract Objectives To identify risk factors for bombings and bomb hoaxes committed by dissident Republicans in Belfast, Northern Ireland. Methods Risk terrain modelling (RTM) was applied to each type of incident to identify significant risk layers. Results Previous protests and riots [relative risk value (RRV) of 14.07; spatial influence (SI) of 100 m], punishment attacks (RRV 6.56; SI 300 m) and areas dense with pubs and bars (RRV 4.98; SI 200 m) were identified as risk factors for bombings. Punishment attacks (RRV 10.77; SI 100 m), police stations (RRV 8.76; SI of 200 m) and places dense with shops (RRV 6.94; SI 400 m) were identified as risk factors for bomb hoaxes. Descriptive statistics regarding predictive accuracy concluded that half of incidents for both types occurred in high or very high risk cells in a 3-year post-study period. Conclusions RTM could be a useful tool in guiding targeted responses to the dissident Republican threat in Belfast. The results suggest that there is some assessment of risk by the offenders, and that they are selecting targets rationally. Due to the differences in risk factors for the two types of events it can be proposed that there may be differences between targets relevant to ideology and realistic targets with increased chance of success. Keywords Terrorism · Risk terrain modelling · Environmental criminology · Northern Ireland
Introduction A common finding in analyses of spatial and temporal variation in risk of terrorist attacks is that they are spatially clustered (Berrebi and Lakdawalla 2007; Townsley et al. 2008; Johnson and Braithwaite 2009; Siebeneck et al. 2009; Medina et al. 2011; Behlendorf et al. 2012; Mohler 2013; Tench et al. 2016). However, the spatial analyses that have been completed thus far have been unable to identify the potential correlates of these hotspots—just the fact they * Zoe Marchment [email protected] 1
Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London, 35 Tavistock Square, London WC1H 9EZ, UK
2
School of Law, Royal Holloway, University of London, London, UK
13
Vol.:(0123456789)
Journal of Quantitative Criminology
exist. Fortunately, risk terrain modelling (hereafter RTM) was developed in the study of urban crime to quantitatively assess the spatial influence of features of the urban landscape to identify areas where criminal activity is likely to emerge or persist. RTM has been applied to many different urban crimes including burglaries (Gale and Hollernan 2013; Moreto et al. 2014), robberies (Kennedy and Gaziarifoglu 2011; Dugato 2013), shootings (Caplan et al. 2011; Drawve et al. 2016a), aggravated assaults (Piza et al. 2011; Kennedy et al. 2016; Anyinam 2015; Kocher and Leitner 2015), and assaults on police (Drawve and Barnum 2018). Because RTM includes contextual information relevant to the social and physical enviro
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