Socialist Investment Cycles Analysis in Retrospect
by Peter J. D. Wiles Professor Emeritus University of London There are two sorts of writers of prefaces: the obliging and the disobliging. Surely Peter MiMlyi knows where to place me in this taxonomy. For the most part I write my own irrelevant opinions,
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International Studies in Economics and Econometrics VOLUME 27
The titles published in this series are listed at the end of this volume.
Socialist Investment Cycles Analysis in Retrospect
Peter Mihalyi United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva and Institute of Economics of The Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest
SPRINGER-SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, B.V.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Mi ha 1y 1. Pe t er. Soclallst lnvestment cycles : analYSiS ln retrospect ! by Peter Mi ha 1y 1. p. cm. -- (International studles in economlCS and econometrlcs ; v. 27) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-94-010-5184-2
ISBN 978-94-011-2676-2 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-011-2676-2
1. Communlst countrles--Economlc policy. 2. Capital investments-Communlst countries. 3. Central plannlng--Communlst countries. I. Title. ~I. Serles. HC7C4.M464 1992 338.9~7--dc20 92-31351
ISBN 978-94-010-5184-2
All Rights Reserved
© 1992 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 1992
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1992 No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form pr by any means, electronic or mechanical, includlng photocopying, recording or by any infOmlation storage and retrieval system, without written permission trom the copyright owner.
To Judit, Eszter and David
Table of contents
List of Abbreviations and Symbols
xii
Preface by Peter J. D. Wiles
xv
Acknowledgements
xvii
INTRODUCfION AND SUMMARY OF MAIN POINTS I. GENERAL FRAMEWORK 1.1 Three schools 1.2 Cycles or fluctuations ? 1.3 Socialism 1.4 Statistical definition of investments 1.5 Theory and statistical reality 1.6 The relevance of cycle models 1.7 Formalised summary 2. THREE SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT 2.1 Control theory models 2.1.1 The complexity argument 2.1.2 Election cycles in Soviet-type economies 2.1.3 Replacement cycles and the role of large investment projects 2.2 Endogenous models 2.2.1 The periodic nature of planning 2.2.2 The investment commitment model 2.3 Common elements 2.4 Exogenous models 2.4.1 The role of politics 2.4.2 Fluctuations due to planning errors 2.4.3 Fluctuations due to campaigns 2.4.4 The cliff's edge thesis 2.4.5 Investment cycles or business cycles? 2.4.6 GINV: target or control variable? 2.4.7 The paradigm of bureaucratic regularity
9 9 11
17 29
40 44 46 47 49 49 50 51 58 59
70 91 93 93
96 98 99 102 104 105
viii
3. MEASUREMENT OF INVESTMENT FLUcrUATIONS 3.1 Distortion of GINV data 3.1.1 Revisions of past series 3.1.2 The treatment of military procurement 3.1.3 The impact of distorted price indices 3.2 Traps of time series analysis 3.2.1 Precision of growth rate figures 3.2.2 Theoretical and practical problems of trend analysis 3.2.3 Fluctuations at random? 3.3 East-West comparison of GINV fluctuations 3.4 Synchronization of investment fluctuations
109 109 110 112 116 120 120 122 127 138 143
4. COMMON PATTERNS AND PARTICULARITIES - A HISTORICAL ANALYSIS 4.1 The method
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