Spatiotemporal analysis of rainfed cereal yields across the eastern high plateaus of Algeria: an exploratory investigati
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(2020) 5:54
ORIGINAL PAPER
Spatiotemporal analysis of rainfed cereal yields across the eastern high plateaus of Algeria: an exploratory investigation of the effects of weather factors Amine M. Benmehaia1 · Noureddine Merniz2 · Amine Oulmane3 Received: 1 February 2020 / Accepted: 23 July 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract In this study, the climatic determinants of cereal yield differentials in the eastern high plateaus of Algeria were explored and analyzed. Using panel data for five regions from the period 2000–2016, we analyzed the relationships between crop yield and two climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) for three major Algerian rainfed cereals: durum wheat, common wheat, and barley. The Mann–Kendall test was applied to assess the significance and magnitude of yield trends, and pooled OLS regression was employed to analyze the determinants of the variability in cereal yields. Results showed that the rain‑ fed cereal yields in this zone are highly variable; that the minimum temperature and average annual precipitation strongly influence cereal yield differentials, with an observed cumulative (lagged) effect; and that the maximum temperature has no direct (or lagged) effect (i.e., its effect on the yield is not statistically significant). The findings of this study also suggest that, despite significant regional differences in semiarid environments, advances in the production technology used in cereal farming have had consistent effects on the yield stability—increasing yields of common wheat but barely influencing yields of durum wheat and barley. These are important findings for the rainfed cereal sector of Algerian dryland agriculture, as they permit a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on Algerian agriculture. Keywords Rainfed cereal · Yield variability · Climate change · Eastern high plateaus · Algeria
Introduction The weather and technology are both considered to be important influences on the future of grain production world‑ wide (Thompson 1975; Easterling et al. 2007). Although climate change is a global phenomenon, its effects manifest themselves locally (Xu et al. 2019). One major aspect of these effects is that their impacts on crop yields can vary; for instance, the effect of the weather differs significantly from Communicated by Armando da Costa Duarte, Chief Editor. * Amine M. Benmehaia ma.benmehaia@univ‑biskra.dz 1
Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Biskra, BP 145RP, 07000 Biskra, Algeria
2
Department of Nature and Life Sciences, University of Msila, PB 166, 28000 Msila, Algeria
3
Department of Agriculture, Territory and Environment, Research Center in Applied Economics for Development, BP 19, Rostomia Bouzaréah, Algeria
region to region. Weather affects the profitability of many agricultural enterprises (McQuigg and Doll 1961). In the last few decades, considerable attention has been focused on the effects of weather factors on agricultural production in developed and less developed countries (Brown 2013; Bin
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