The Art of Regression Modeling in Road Safety
This unique book explains how to fashion useful regression models from commonly available data to erect models essential for evidence-based road safety management and research. Composed from techniques and best practices presented over many years of lectu
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The Art of Regression Modeling in Road Safety
The Art of Regression Modeling in Road Safety
Ezra Hauer
The Art of Regression Modeling in Road Safety
Ezra Hauer Professor Emeritus University of Toronto Toronto, ON, Canada
Additional material to this book can be downloaded from http://extras.springer.com ISBN 978-3-319-12528-2 ISBN 978-3-319-12529-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-12529-9 Springer Cham Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London Library of Congress Control Number: 2014953294 # Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. Exempted from this legal reservation are brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the Copyright Law of the Publisher’s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Permissions for use may be obtained through RightsLink at the Copyright Clearance Center. Violations are liable to prosecution under the respective Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication, neither the authors nor the editors nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility for any errors or omissions that may be made. The publisher makes no warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
To Gordon Newell, mentor, in gratitude.
Preface
This book has two objectives. The first is to teach how to fit a multivariable statistical model to cross-sectional safety data using a simple spreadsheet. The second is to promote the understanding that is at the core of good modeling. These twin objectives determine the flow and the structure of the book. After some preliminaries, a real data set is introduced. From here on and all the way to the last chapter, the same data are used to gradually build up a regression model. Along the way there are the “what and how” sections: what is an exploratory data analysis, how to use pivot tables, what is a curve-fitting spreadsheet and ho
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