The Evolution of the International Coal Trade: A Strategic and Decision-Making Perspective
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INTRODUCTION
*HarryBruce is a Senior Vice President and Directorof the IllinoisCentralGulf Railroad.He received a B.S. from KentState University,a Master's Degree in Transportation Economics from the Universityof Tennessee, and is a graduate of the Advanced Management Program at the HarvardBusiness School. He has extensive business experience in the logistics field, particularlyin the railroadindustry.He is the authorof several articles and two books, Distribution and TransportationHandbookand How to Apply Statistics to Physicial Distribution. **MelHorwitchis a memberof the faculty at the AlfredP. Sloan School of Management at M.I.T.in the CorporateStrategy, Policy and PlanningGroup.He received his A.B.from Princeton Universityand his M.B.A.and Doctoratefromthe HarvardBusiness School. He has taught courses on corporate policy and strategy, technological innovation, managing public organizations, managing large-scale enterprises, productionoperations, and energy economics. He is a consultant to numerous privatefirms and public institutions. He has authoredseveral articles on management and has just completed a book-lengthmanuscript entitled Clipped Wings: TheAmerican SST Conflict to be published by the M.I.T.Press. ***Pedro Nueno is Professor and Associate Dean of IESE, NavarraUniversity, located in Barcelona, Spain. He received his Doctorate from the HarvardBusiness School. Dr.Nueno is a consultant and director of several companies in the steel, textiles, transportation, and hospital supply industries, and he also consults for the WorldBankand OECD.He is a member of the editorial board of the Journal of InternationalBusiness Studies and is the author and co-author of books on foreign direct investment and articles on manufacturingpolicy and internationalbusiness. He also directs the IESE Energy Research Project. Journal of International Business Studies, Spring/Summer 1983
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American coal producers incorrectly assessed the sudden surge in demand for U.S. coal. When overseas buyers began placing orders for steam coal in late 1979, the news came as a very pleasant surprise to the American industry. Surprise though it may have been, the orders filled a void left by the sharp decline in metallurgical coal demand as a result of the worldwidesoftness for steel products. This situation resulted in a 536 percent increase in steam coal exports to Europe in just one year. The UnitedStates then supplied the linkin a brokencoal supply chain. Despite the country's lack of rapid discharge steam coal terminals, coal buyers caused the sharp rise in U.S. export coal for one fundamental reason-the U.S. was the "only game in town." But the large export tonnage figures, which soared off the chart in 1980, have begun to stabilize and show signs of weakening in 1982. Such weakness has caused many of those same "experts," who previously forecasted huge increases, to become bea
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