The Intuitive Sources of Probabilistic Thinking in Children
About a year ago I promised my friend Fischbein a preface to his book of which I knew the French manuscript. Now with the printer's proofs under my eyes I like the book even better than I did then, because of, and influenced by, new experiences in the mea
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SYNTHESE LIBRARY
STUDIES IN EPISTEMOLOGY, LOGIC, METHODOLOGY, AND PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE
Managing Editor: JAAKKO HINTIKKA, Florida State University
Editors: ROBERT S. COHEN, Boston University DONALD DA VIDSON, University of Chicago GABRIEL NUCHELMANS, University of Leyden WESLEY C. SALMON, University of Arizona
VOLUME 85
E. FISCHBEIN
THE INTUITIVE SOURCES OF PROBABILISTIC THINKING IN CHILDREN
D. REIDEL PUBLISHING COMPANY DORDRECHT : HOLLAND / BOSTON: U.S.A. LONDON:ENGLAND
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Fischbein, E. The intuitive sources of probabilistic thinking in children. (Synthese library; v. 85) Translation of Le concept de probabilite chez l'enfant. Bibliography: p. 1. Cognition (Child psychology) 2. Probability learning. 3. Intuition (Psychology) I. Title. BF723.C5F5713 155.4'13 75-22376 ISBN-13: 978-90-277-1190-8 e-ISBN-13: 978-94-010-1858-6 001: 10.1007/978-94-010-1858-6
Published by D. Reidel Publishing Company, P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, Holland. Sold and distributed in the U.S.A. and Canada by Kluwer Boston Inc., Lincoln Building, 160 Old Derby Street, Hingham, MA 02043, U.S.A. In all other countries, sold and distributed by Kluwer Academic Publishers Group, P.O. Box 322, 3300 AH Dordrecht, Holland. D. Reidel Publishing Company is a member of the Kluwer Group.
0-1190-0580-480
All Rights Reserved Copyright ~ 1975 by D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any informational storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner
To my wife and my daughter
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE
IX
TRANSLATOR'S ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
XI
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
XIII
CHAPTER I
Introduction
1
CHAPTER II
Intuition and Intelligence
5
CHAPTER III
Probability Learning
20
CHAPTER IV
Probability Learning in Children
32
CHAPTER V
The Intuition of Relative Frequency
58
CHAPTER VI
Estimating Odds and The Concept of Probability
66
CHAPTER VII
Combinatorial Analysis
99
CHAPTER VIII
Summary and Conclusions
BIBLIOGRAPHY
117 132
Primary and Secondary Intuitions in the Introduction of Probability, by E. Fischbein, Ileana Barbat, and I. Minzat
138
The Child's Intuition of Probability, by E. Fischbein, Ileana Pampu, and I. Minzat
156
APPENDIX I.
APPENDIX II.
Comparison of Ratios and the Chance Concept in 175 Children, by E. Fischbein, Ileana Pampu, and I. Minzat
APPENDIX III.
Effects of Age and Instruction on Combinatory Ability in Children, by E. Fischbein, Ileana Pampu, and 189 I. Minzat
APPENDIX IV.
INDEX OF NAMES
202
PREFACE
About a year ago I promised my friend Fischbein a preface to his book of which I knew the French manuscript. Now with the printer's proofs under my eyes I like the book even better than I did then, because of, and influenced by, new experiences in the meantime, and fresh thoughts that crossed my mind. Have I been influenced by
