The professional foul in football: Tactics and deterrents
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The professional foul in football: Tactics and deterrents M Wright* and N Hirotsu Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK We demonstrate the use of a model calibrated using data from every 1999–2000 Premiership match to determine the circumstances under which a player ‘should’ commit a professional foul in order to benefit his team. The results are illustrated using two hypothetical matches, one between evenly balanced teams and one where one of the teams is much stronger than the other. These circumstances turn out to be wide-ranging and, in some cases, somewhat counterintuitive. The many drawbacks of the current system for punishing such fouls are discussed, and a simple remedy is proposed that would not only be much fairer to all involved but would also, at a stroke, render the professional foul virtually obsolete. Journal of the Operational Research Society (2003) 54, 213–221. doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601506 Keywords: sports; football; dynamic programming
Tactical analysis in sports A wide variety of sports have been subjected to tactical analysis. The list includes American football,1–3 athletics,4,5 Australian Rules football,6 badminton,7 baseball,8–11 cricket,12– 14 darts,15 fell running,16 ice hockey,17 orienteering,18,19 squash rackets,20,21 and tennis.7,22,23 Surveys of such studies have been published by Ladany and Machol24 and by Norman.25 In some cases, tactical considerations can be considered during a match by the players involved. However, in other cases, the players do not have time to pause and consider rationally what exactly to do next. This means that tactical considerations are most valuable when they can be expressed in terms of general principles, for the benefit of coaches as much as players. The above is probably true for association football (henceforth simply referred to as football). This has not received a great deal of attention from quantitative researchers, although Hirotsu and Wright26,27 have analysed optimal times for making substitutions and other tactical changes. Ridder et al28 also analysed the effect of a ‘professional foul’ using data from the Netherlands professional football league during the 1991–2 season. This paper extends Ridder et al ’s28 analysis to the English Premier League (EPL), using data from the 1999–2000 season, and also extends the scope of their analysis in more important ways, the most important being the effect of the score in the game at the time when the foul is committed. The model also models the differing strengths of teams more *Correspondence: M Wright, Department of Management Science, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YX, UK. E-mail: [email protected]
directly. The model is a slightly simplified version of one of those used by Hirotsu and Wright.26,27
The professional foul All readers interested in the game of football will be familiar with the following scenarios.
Scenario 1 The attacking side shoots for a goal. The goalkeepe
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