Understanding changes in Sino-U.S. relations from a historical perspective

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Understanding changes in Sino‑U.S. relations from a historical perspective Baijia Zhang1 Received: 21 June 2020 / Accepted: 14 July 2020 © The Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS), Peking University 2020

Abstract This paper analyzes the development of China–US relations through an exploration of history. It contains three parts. The first part reviews the evolution of China–US relations from the mid-nineteenth century to the present, discussing how the differences in the two countries’ social systems, values, geography, and international status have influenced the bilateral relationship. The second part sums up the historical experience of China–US exchanges, exploring how China–US relations affect the world at large, how the US has responded to changes within China and the dynamics of rivalry and mutual trust between the two countries. The third part uses historical comparison to analyze current disputes between China and the US, suggesting that it is still possible for them to avoid a zero-sum game and to reshape China–US relations through rationality, patience, wisdom, and creativity. Keywords  China–US relations · Historical experience · Strategic competition · Action-reaction

1 Introduction It was not until the most recent decade that the relationship between China and the United States became regarded as the most important bilateral relationship in the world. As such, its future not only affects the respective development of the two countries but also has a bearing on the future of the world. The state of the world’s most important bilateral relationship can be hugely consequential both in positive and negative terms. For instance, the Cold War stemmed from a confrontation between two major superpowers, the US and the USSR. China–US relations have been deteriorating for some time (Wang and Hu 2019). Many observers believe that the relationship between the two countries has been * Baijia Zhang [email protected] 1



Party History Research Center of the CPC Central Committee, No. 1, Qianmaojiawan, Xicheng District, Beijing, China

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China International Strategy Review

permanently damaged over the past decade.1Increasing tension between the two nations, in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, seems to have further exacerbated the divide. In light of these and other major changes, it is necessary to take a look at the history of China–US relations, which may provide insight for handling present and future situations. This paper explores three issues: first, it places China–US relations and the differences between the countries in historical context; second, it discusses the lessons learned as China–US relations have evolved over time; and third, it develops proposed methods for handling China–US relations going forward with wisdom and creativity by incorporating these lessons from the past.

2 Placing China–US relations and the differences between the two countries in historical context Viewed from a historical or realist perspective, China and the United States a