Using the Kaban Lakes Integrated Assessment Model for Investigating Potential Levels of Antibiotic Pollution of the Nizh
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Using the Kaban Lakes Integrated Assessment Model for Investigating Potential Levels of Antibiotic Pollution of the Nizhniy Kaban and Sredniy Kaban Lakes Liudmila L. Frolova & Antoniy Elias Sverdrup & Harald Ulrik Sverdrup
Received: 4 March 2020 / Accepted: 13 July 2020 / Published online: 5 August 2020 # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract The Kaban Lakes Integrated Assessment Model (KLIAM) was enhanced in order to assess the possible content of antibiotics in the Kaban lakes, located within the city borders of Kazan City, Tatarstan Republic in the Russian Federation, and potential for adverse environmental effects. The Kaban Lakes Integrated Assessment Model simulations suggest that the concentrations in the Nizhniy Kaban lake and Sredniy Kaban lake may exceed the predicted no effect concentration (PNEC) and low-risk limits set by EU and the WHO. Many missing data could be assumed or approximated, and simulation runs were conducted. The results are consistent with other global studies in terms of average concentrations observed elsewhere in rivers and lakes. The results suggest that the study should be followed up with lake water analysis and an assessment of antibiotic loads to the Kaban lakes. It is concluded that the results are too uncertain to initiate any policy
L. L. Frolova : A. E. Sverdrup Genetics and Bioinformatics, Kazan Federal University, Kremlevskaya Street 18, Kazan, Tatarstan Republic, Russian Federation 420 008 H. U. Sverdrup Gamification and Systems Thinking, Inland University of Applied Sciences, 2315 Hamar, Norway H. U. Sverdrup (*) Industrial Engineering, University of Iceland, Hjardarhagi 2-6, 107 Reykjavik, Iceland e-mail: [email protected]
action at the present moment and that an assessment supported by measurements would be warranted. Keywords System dynamics . Supply . Sustainability . Kaban lakes . Antibiotics
1 Introduction The Kaban lakes are located within the city limits of Kazan, Russia, and they are the largest natural lakes in the Tatarstan Republic. They are important parts of the city landscape and important resource for the recreation resources of the city. They are located in a pleasant environment, and a redevelopment of the area surrounding the Kaban lakes is planned for the next decade. The Kaban lakes have been eutrophic for a long time because of a long history of industry pollution and sewage flowing freely from the city to the Kaban lakes. Kazan earned itself a reputation for having bad water, something the can still noticed in the inhabitants habits by an outsider (Vishlenkova 2005). The Kaban lakes still suffer from this, and more professional efforts are needed to improve the water quality of the Kaban lakes, such as making swimming and bathing a pleasant experience or getting tap water to have stable drinking water quality. Table 1 shows some data describing the Kaban lakes. The Kaban lakes are frozen over by ice from December to the end of March. The Kaban lakes experience a typical continental climate, with warm summers (25 °C to 30 °C) and cold winters (−10 °
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