Research on the risk-based model for regional emergency resource allocation for ship-source oil spill
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Research on the risk-based model for regional emergency resource allocation for ship-source oil spill ZHANG Chunchang1, 2, AN Wei3, XIONG Deqi1*, LIU Baozhan3, SONG Shasha3 1 College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116023, China 2 Maritime Safety Administration of the People’s Republic China, Beijing 100736, China 3 China Offshore Environmental Services Ltd., Tianjin 300452, China
Received 22 December 2017; accepted 5 February 2018 © Chinese Society for Oceanography and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018
Abstract
The key point for rational allocation of emergency resources is to match the oil spill response capacity with the risk of oil spill. This paper proposes an innovative risk-based model for quantitative regional emergency resource allocation, which comprehensively analyzes the factors such as oil spill probability, hazard consequences, oil properties, weathering process and operation efficiency, etc. The model calculates three major resources, i.e., mechanical recovery, dispersion and absorption, according to the results of risk assessment. In a field application in Xiaohu Port, Guangzhou, China, and the model achieved scientific and rational allocation of emergency resources by matching the assessed risk with the regional capacity, and allocating emergency resources according to capability target. The model is considered to be beneficial to enhancing the resource efficiency and may contribute to the planning of capacity-building programs in high-risk areas. Key words: oil spill risk, oil spill quantity, probability, emergency capability Citation: Zhang Chunchang, An Wei, Xiong Deqi, Liu Baozhan, Song Shasha. 2018. Research on the risk-based model for regional emergency resource allocation for ship-source oil spill. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 37(11): 133–138, doi: 10.1007/s13131-018-1253-x
1 Introduction Rapid development of China’s maritime transportation is witnessed by the continuous increase of ships navigating in China’s coastal waters, and is accompanied by the increasing risk of shipsource oil spill accidents. From 1973 to 2017, 157 ship-source oil spill accidents (spillage over 10 tons) occurred along China’s coasts, and the majority of the spills occurred in the waters near ports. To address the increasing risk, matters with regard to the overall oil spill response capacity, the balance of capacity among different areas, and scientific allocation of emergency resources, have drawn increasing concern of competent authorities and the public. To achieve scientific response to ship-source oil spill accidents, it is essential to conduct risk assessment and to allocate emergency resources accordingly, as highly valued by experts around the world. For the assessment of risk of ship-source oil spill accidents, tools including stochastic theory, fuzzy mathematics, probability theory, statistics, oil spill dynamics, event trees, etc., were applied (Devanney, 1974; DNV, 2000, 2011; Frate et al., 2000; Udoh and Ekanem, 2011; Lee and Jung, 20
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