Response of river-lake hydrologic regimes to local climate change in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau region, China
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Response of river-lake hydrologic regimes to local climate change in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau region, China Zhongzhao Duan 1 & Mingjing Wang 1 & Xuexiu Chang 2,3 & Wei Gao 1 Received: 4 February 2020 / Accepted: 10 October 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Climate change affects hydrological regimes by influencing precipitation and air temperature. The climate change effects on lake hydrology in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau of China remain unclear. Lake Dianchi, the Plateau’s largest lake subject to human interference, was selected for the study. Algorithms based on historical meteorological data produced high-resolution climate change scenarios describing climate characteristics at a local watershed scale. Integrated river and lake hydrological models simulated changes in inflow, lake volume, and hydrological extremes under different scenarios. Results showed that Lake Dianchi Basin (LDB) inflow would decrease by 1.88~2.21% if air temperature increased by 1~2 °C but increase by 1.23~16.1% if precipitation increased by 5~20%. Lake volume would change minimally (decrease of 0.87~1.15%) if air temperature increased 1~2 °C and if precipitation increased 5~20% (increase of 0.04~4.12%); thus, the hydrological regimes of LDB are more sensitive to precipitation than air temperature. Changes to 3-day and 7-day maximum hydrological extremes were double those of 3-day and 7-day minimums, indicating precipitation-affected maximum extreme hydrological events during wet season more than minimum extreme hydrological events during dry season. In conclusion, both unevenly distributed precipitation and increasing air temperature will increase wet season floods and dry-season droughts in plateau lakes like Lake Dianchi. Keywords Climate change . Hydrological regime . Plateau lake . BASINS-CAT . HBV-light
Introduction Climate change significantly affects hydrological cycles at both global and regional scales, which will subsequently influence water resource distribution (Grafton et al. 2013; Stocker and Raible 2005). The Fifth Synthesis Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) stresses the major contribution of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to increases in global surface temperatures (IPCC 2014). A special IPCC report also states that the risk of climate extremes, including extreme precipitation and heat, will noticeably increase with the increase in surface temperature (IPCC 2012). Studies on the impact of climate change on water resources have attracted academic
Communicated by Wolfgang Cramer Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01712-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Wei Gao [email protected]
1
Yunnan State Key Laboratory for Plateau Mountain Ecology and Restoration of Degraded Environments, College of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, Yunnan, China
2
College of Ecology a
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