Risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the mainland of China exclu
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province Hui Wan1† , Jing-An Cui2† and Guo-Jing Yang3,4,5*†
Abstract Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of coronavirus disease (later named as COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China and, later on, detected in other parts of China. Our aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of the evolution of interventions and self-protection measures, estimate the risk of partial lifting control measures and predict the epidemic trend of the virus in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province based on the published data and a novel mathematical model. Methods: A novel COVID-19 transmission dynamic model incorporating the intervention measures implemented in China is proposed. COVID-19 daily data of the mainland of China excluding Hubei province, including the cumulative confirmed cases, the cumulative deaths, newly confirmed cases and the cumulative recovered cases between 20 January and 3 March 2020, were archived from the National Health Commission of China (NHCC). We parameterize the model by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and estimate the control reproduction number (Rc ), as well as the effective daily reproduction ratio-Re (t), of the disease transmission in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province. Results: The estimation outcomes indicate that Rc is 3.36 (95% CI: 3.20–3.64) and Re (t) has dropped below 1 since 31 January 2020, which implies that the containment strategies implemented by the Chinese government in the mainland of China are indeed effective and magnificently suppressed COVID-19 transmission. Moreover, our results show that relieving personal protection too early may lead to a prolonged disease transmission period and more people would be infected, and may even cause a second wave of epidemic or outbreaks. By calculating the effective reproduction ratio, we prove that the contact rate should be kept at least less than 30% of the normal level by April, 2020. Conclusions: To ensure the pandemic ending rapidly, it is necessary to maintain the current integrated restrict interventions and self-protection measures, including travel restriction, quarantine of entry, contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation and reduction of contact, like wearing masks, keeping social distance, etc. People should (Continued on next page)
*Correspondence: [email protected] † Hui Wan, Jing-An Cui and Guo-Jing Yang contributed equally to this work. Hainan Medical University, 571199 Haikou, China 4 Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland Full list of author information is available at the end of the article 3
© The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original
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