Role of Regional and International Powers
The unending Syrian civil war has involved every major and regional power against the Assad regime. Except for Russia and Iran, their active military involvement against a sovereign country, with a legally constituted government, has thrown overboard the
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Role of Regional and International Powers
ISIS’s collapse and the considerable territorial gains made by Bashar alAssad’s regime have still not ended the civil war. Syria continues to exercise a pull on the region as a whole. Like the international order, itself, the regional order in the Middle East, is in chaos. Any vision of the region finding a workable balance of power is a mirage: the new order is fundamentally one of disorder. ‘Although Syria is the most cataclysmic case, the regional powers have created enormous human and political damage elsewhere, too, in their quest for influence and prestige. Their efforts have even destabilized countries that were not embroiled in civil war’.1 The active assistance of major global powers through provision of finance, arms and ammunition, and personnel has introduced complexity into the task of bringing in a regional order that will bring peace and meet the aspirations of the people. Rather than the Arab uprisings creating new democracies, there is resurgence of authoritative rule that has consolidated the sectarian divide as the fulcrum of a nascent order based on societal divisions like rural–urban, government-business and army and the rest. In this churning, the Gulf countries endowed with oil and unlimited financial resources could gain an influential profile.
1 Marc Lynch, ‘The New Arab Order: Power and Violence in Today’s Middle East’, Foreign Affairs, September-October 2018, issue, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ middle-east/2018-08-13/new-arab-order.
© The Author(s) 2020 R. M. Abhyankar, Syria, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4562-7_5
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The regional agenda will largely hinge on success of the effort to end the Syrian civil war; secondly, the continuation of the Saudi-Iran proxy war; thirdly, the way the Israel–Iran–US triangle plays out, and finally, the positioning and policies of Russia and the United States.2 Despite their continuing tragedy, in different ways and intensity, the war in Yemen and the Israeli—Palestinian conflict in particular, will have a lesser impact on the overall political developments in the region. The region appears poised on the brink of a conflagration at multiple points. Since the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement the situation has become even more fraught with the Iranian drone or cruise missile strike on September 14, 2019 on the Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq facility, causing massive damage and crippling the nation’s oil production. The Houthi claim for the attack has been discounted given their capability and the area of attack. Oil production of 5.7 mb per day had to be suspended, according to the company.3 President Trump promised US action against Iran if proven. Meanwhile, the stalemated war led by Saudi Arabia against the Houthis in Yemen has led to widespread deaths and destruction creating another massive humanitarian tragedy. The UAE has taken the opportunity to establish, for the first time, naval bases across the Horn of Africa to enforce the blockade on Qatar and protect its
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