Scenario Planning as a Tool in Foresight Exercises: The LIPSOR Approach
Foresight is a future-oriented activity that supports decision-making processes by focusing on the management of the complexity involved within a turbulent environment in a long-term planning context (Giaoutzi et al. 2012). Scenario planning, as a strateg
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Scenario Planning as a Tool in Foresight Exercises: The LIPSOR Approach Anastasia Stratigea and Maria Giaoutzi
14.1
Introduction
Foresight is a future-oriented activity that supports decision-making processes by focusing on the management of the complexity involved within a turbulent environment in a long-term planning context (Giaoutzi et al. 2012). Scenario planning, as a strategic and effective planning and learning tool, should constitute an integral part of any foresight exercise. The regional level, in scenario planning, appears as the most appropriate level for foresight applications that deal with the emerging challenges introduced by increasing globalization, which is motivating both processes and changes (Ringland 1998, 2002; STRATA-ETAN 2002; Stimson et al. 2006; etc.). Traditional tools used so far have serious drawbacks with respect to their potential for dealing with uncertainty and complexity, thus reflecting their inherent deterministic rationale (Giaoutzi et al. 2012). In recent research, there is an increasing emphasis on new tools to deal with uncertainty and complexity issues, such as mathematical tools that handle uncertainty and complexity; scenario-planning approaches; interactive participatory methods for involving a broader audience in the planning process; etc. (Giaoutzi and Stratigea 2010). Such developments indicate a shift from the view that ‘the future is there to be predicted’ to the view of the ‘socially created future’, where a systematic study of the future is nothing more than ‘a tool for choosing and creating the most desirable future’ (STRATA-ETAN 2002). The issue of participation is critical in this respect. The focus of the present chapter is on the potential of participatory scenario planning for regional future studies. More precisely, Sect. 14.2 discusses the key concepts of scenario planning; Sect. 14.3 presents the scenario-planning participatory
A. Stratigea (*) • M. Giaoutzi Department of Geography and Regional Planning, National Technical University of Athens (NTUA), Heroon Polytechniou Str. 9, Zographou Campus, Athens 157 80, Greece e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] M. Giaoutzi and B. Sapio (eds.), Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies, Complex Networks and Dynamic Systems 1, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-5215-7_14, © Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013
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framework LIPSOR, adopted in the present case study; Sect. 14.4 describes the study region (Heraklion–Crete); Sect. 14.5 elaborates on the results of the application of the LIPSOR participatory framework in the study region; and, finally, in Sect. 14.6 certain conclusions are drawn.
14.2
Scenario Planning as a Tool in Foresight Studies
The present section provides some background concepts of scenario planning in foresight studies. Foresight studies refer to a medium- to long-term horizon, where the future appears multiple and uncertain. The longer the time horizon of a study, the greater the uncertainty and the potential discontinuiti
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