Scenario Transfer Methodology and Technology
Many research activities have been carried out over the years in the area of scenario methodologies (see, e.g. Godet 1987; Georgantzas and Acar 1995), but no great efforts have been devoted to facilitating the fruition, by end-users, of the results obtain
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Scenario Transfer Methodology and Technology Bartolomeo Sapio and Enrico Nicolò
11.1
Introduction
Many research activities have been carried out over the years in the area of scenario methodologies (see, e.g. Godet 1987; Georgantzas and Acar 1995), but no great efforts have been devoted to facilitating the fruition, by end-users, of the results obtained through the application of these methodologies. That is, enormous attention has been paid over time to the theoretical aspects of formal scenario methods, but the gap between the analytical details of the ensuing findings in various application fields and the necessity of easy-to-learn knowledge by decision makers and strategic planners has not been adequately bridged. In other words, yet again, the availability of only complex mathematical outputs has often discouraged top managers from adopting suggestions derived from the utilization of the relevant methods and has frustrated the precious potentialities of their conceptual frameworks and computerized tools. Therefore, methodological and technical efforts have to be made in order to both make scenario methodologies more effective and help key decision takers with their work. It is possible to make these attempts by exploiting the tools provided today by technology, in particular by the ‘networked hypermultimedia’ epoch which we are entering, characterized by the evolving global digital superhighway infrastructure and dominated by the huge planetary diffusion of the networked hypermedia, the World Wide Web. Scenario modellers should integrate the capabilities offered by technology within the process of scenario creation itself, from conception to delivery, in order to develop their methodologies and, specifically, to transfer them
B. Sapio (*) • E. Nicolò Fondazione Ugo Bordoni, Viale del Policlinico 147, 00161 Rome, Italy e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]
M. Giaoutzi and B. Sapio (eds.), Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies, Complex Networks and Dynamic Systems 1, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-5215-7_11, © Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013
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effectively and efficiently to strategic end-users. In this way, the comprehension, interpretation, acceptability and usability of scenario methods and their results can be facilitated and increased. In sum, both a theoretical framework and a practical context are necessary to provide methods with a conceptual and instrumental ‘interface’ capable of adequately transferring ‘scenario knowledge’ to strategic managers who need easyand ready-to-use highly aggregated and concise elements. To this purpose, we introduce here some fundamentals of scenario transfer methodology and technology (Nicolò and Sapio 1999), which are both developed within the logical framework of scenario engineering.
11.2
Scenario Analysis: History and Definitions
The term ‘scenario’ was officially introduced in futurology by Herman Kahn (1967), but the word has generally retained primarily literary connotations, concerning either ideal or apocalyptic p
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