Searching for Flamingos in Israel: The pitfalls of mixing scenarios and negotiations
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Dialogue
Searching for Flamingos in Israel: The pitfalls of mixing scenarios and negotiations
GARY SUSSMAN
ABSTRACT Gary Sussman explores the tensions that emerge when key actors in a scenario exercise seek to drive a negotiations agenda by pressing participants to back one particular scenario. The scenario exercise: Israel 2025 attempted to provide for an internal Israeli debate on a permanent Palestinian-Israeli accommodation and on the future of Israeli society itself. Contrary to assumptions that the Palestinian or territorial question would be the central factor in this exercise, demography within Israel emerged as the driving force. As a result, three of the scenarios challenged the assumption that territorial concessions would secure Israel’s continued existence as a unitary Jewish and democratic state – the ideal of most participants – leading to formidable tension. KEYWORDS Israel; Mont Fleur Scenarios; representation; Oslo negotiations; Palestinian-Israeli; demography
Introduction Scenario projects are designed to allow participants to imagine jointly a range of future developments. Negotiations, on the other hand, are a quest for a particular outcome. Such strains are probably more acute when the scenarios involve highly sensitive political issues, as was the case during the Israeli project, Israel 2025. Inspiration for the Israel 2025 exercise came from the South African Mont Fleur exercise (see Graham Galer’s article in this issue of Development). Looking ahead ten years, the group accepted four scenarios as plausible. The sketches were the Ostrich scenario, capturing the continuation of the status quo, the Lame Duck sequence where a weak unity government was unable to lead a sustainable transition. In contrast, the Icarus story foretold of populist (socialist) economic policies, with initial success replaced by economic collapse. The fourth schema the group presented was the Flight of the Flamingos. In this ideal scenario, the transition would lead to a stable democracy and a balanced economic regime that delivered growth and stability. The scenario idea travelled from the Society for International Development (SID) office in Rome to the offices in Tel Aviv of the Economic Cooperation Foundation (ECF), whose primary preoccupation then was the Oslo peace process. The scenarios process was launched in January 1999 with 20 Israeli participants. The project’s leaders were Development (2004) 47(4), 60–66. doi:10.1057/palgrave.development.1100083
Sussman: Searching for Flamingos in Israel the ECF’s Director General, DrYair Hirschfeld, and a prominent settler leader, Israel Harel. The process was facilitated by two local Israeli consultants, Dr Yossi Rhein and Yonathan Lerner. The project was coordinated on behalf of the Ebert Stiftung by Dirk Sadowski. After twelve different meetings, the group produced four scenarios that were published in 2000. One weakness in this exercise is that the group was not fully representative and inclusive of Israeli society or of the wider conflict. Ultraorthodox (religiou
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