Seasonal temperature response over the Indochina Peninsula to a worst-case high-emission forcing: a study with the regio
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Seasonal temperature response over the Indochina Peninsula to a worst-case high-emission forcing: a study with the regionally coupled model ROM Shoupeng Zhu 1,3,5 & Fei Ge 2,3,5 & Frank Sielmann 4 & Mengting Pan 1,5 & Klaus Fraedrich 1,3 & Armelle Reca C. Remedio 6 & Dmitry V. Sein 7 & Daniela Jacob 6 & Hao Wang 8 & Xiefei Zhi 1,5 Received: 21 November 2019 / Accepted: 23 July 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Changes of surface air temperature (SAT) over the Indochina Peninsula (ICP) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario are projected for wet and dry seasons in the short-term (2020–2049) and long-term (2070–2099) future of the twenty-first century. A first analysis on projections of the SAT by the state-of-the-art regionally coupled atmosphere-ocean model ROM, including exchanges of momentum, heat, and water fluxes between the atmosphere (Regional Model) and ocean (Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) models, shows the following results: (i) In both seasons, the highest SAT occurs over the southern coastal area while the lowest over the northern mountains. The highest warming magnitudes are located in the northwestern part of the ICP. The regionally averaged SAT over the ICP increases by 2.61 °C in the wet season from short- to long-term future, which is slightly faster than that of 2.50 °C in the dry season. (ii) During the short-term future, largest SAT trends occur over the southeast and northwest ICP in wet and dry seasons, respectively. On regional average, the wet season is characterized by a significant warming rate of 0.22 °C decade−1, while it is non-significant with 0.11 °C decade−1 for the dry season. For the long-term future, the rapid warming is strengthened significantly over whole ICP, with trends of 0.51 °C decade−1 and 0.42 °C decade−1 in wet and dry seasons, respectively. (iii) In the long-term future, more conspicuous warming is noted, especially in the wet season, due to the increased downward longwave radiation. Higher CO2 concentrations enhancing the greenhouse effect can be attributed to the water vapor– greenhouse feedback, which, affecting atmospheric humidity and counter radiation, leads to the rising SAT.
1 Introduction Latest observational records confirmed the warming trends of the surface air temperature (SAT) in most countries of Southeast Asia during the past few decades (IPCC 2013). Correspondingly, the frequency and intensity of high
* Fei Ge [email protected] * Xiefei Zhi [email protected] 1
2
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China School of Atmospheric Sciences/Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province/Joint Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, China
temperature extremes have increased over this region (Manton et al. 2001
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