SEIAQRDT model for the spread of novel coronavirus (COVID-19): A case study in India
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SEIAQRDT model for the spread of novel coronavirus (COVID-19): A case study in India Preety Kumari 1,2 & Harendra Pal Singh 3
&
Swarn Singh 4
Accepted: 2 September 2020 # Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract COVID-19 is a global pandemic declared by WHO. This pandemic requires the execution of planned control strategies, incorporating quarantine, self-isolation, and tracing of asymptomatic cases. Mathematical modeling is one of the prominent techniques for predicting and controlling the spread of COVID-19. The predictions of earlier proposed epidemiological models (e.g. SIR, SEIR, SIRD, SEIRD, etc.) are not much accurate due to lack of consideration for transmission of the epidemic during the latent period. Moreover, it is important to classify infected individuals to control this pandemic. Therefore, a new mathematical model is proposed to incorporate infected individuals based on whether they have symptoms or not. This model forecasts the number of cases more accurately, which may help in better planning of control strategies. The model consists of eight compartments: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), asymptomatic (A), quarantined (Q), recovered (R), deaths (D), and insusceptible (T), accumulatively named as SEIAQRDT. This model is employed to predict the pandemic results for India and its majorly affected states. The estimated number of cases using the SEIAQRDT model is compared with SIRD, SEIR, and LSTM models. The relative error square analysis is used to verify the accuracy of the proposed model. The simulation is done on real datasets and results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. These results may help the government and individuals to make the planning in this pandemic situation. Keywords Asymptomatic . Covid-19 . Generalized SEIR . Novel Corona Virus . Pandemic
1 Introduction Many times, in the past, human pandemics and epidemics have destroyed humankind, usually, these pandemics have made many changes in the living of humankind. Similarly, due to the novel coronavirus, the whole world is again * Harendra Pal Singh [email protected] Preety Kumari [email protected] Swarn Singh [email protected] 1
Faculty of Mathematical Science, University of Delhi, Delhi 110007, India
2
School of Engineering & Technology, Central University of Haryana, Mahendergarh 123031, India
3
Cluster Innovation Centre, University of Delhi, Delhi 110007, India
4
Sri Venkateswara College, University of Delhi, Delhi 110021, India
facing the deadly experience which affects human lives the most [1]. WHO declared the COVID-19 as an international pandemic on March 11, 2020 [2]. According to WHO, the continuing pandemic of novel coronavirus has asserted 5,31,806 deaths and 11,301,850 confirmed cases in the world, as of July 6, 2020 [2]. In India, 7,00,728 confirmed cases, and 19,721 deaths have been reported till July 6, 2020 [3]. The government of India also accepted it as pandemic and imposed a nation-wide lockdown on March 23, 2020. Almost the entire
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