Sensitivity Analysis: Matrix Methods in Demography and Ecology
This open access book shows how to use sensitivity analysis in demography. It presents new methods for individuals, cohorts, and populations, with applications to humans, other animals, and plants. The analyses are based on matrix formulations of age-clas
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Hal Caswell
Sensitivity Analysis: Matrix Methods in Demography and Ecology
Demographic Research Monographs A Series of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Editor-in-chief Mikko Myrskylä Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Rostock, Germany
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/5521
Hal Caswell
Sensitivity Analysis: Matrix Methods in Demography and Ecology
Hal Caswell Biodiversity & Ecosystem Dynamics University of Amsterdam Amsterdam, The Netherlands
ISSN 1613-5520 ISSN 2197-9286 (electronic) Demographic Research Monographs ISBN 978-3-030-10533-4 ISBN 978-3-030-10534-1 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-10534-1 Library of Congress Control Number: 2018966869 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2019. This book is an open access publication. Open Access This book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this book are included in the book’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the book’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG. The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
For Moira
Preface
Sensitivity analysis addresses one of the most persistent of all questions: what would happen if ? Within the field of demography, sensitivity analysis might be said to have originated with the groundbreaking, yet very different, papers of Hamilton (1966) and Keyfitz (1971). Hamilton calculated the sensitivity of the intrinsic rate of increase, r, to changes in age-specific mortality. He interpreted r as a measure of individual fitness, capturing the effects
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