Simulation of meteorological drought using exponential smoothing models: a study on Bankura District, West Bengal, India
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Simulation of meteorological drought using exponential smoothing models: a study on Bankura District, West Bengal, India Shrinwantu Raha1,2 · Shasanka Kumar Gayen1,2 Received: 1 December 2019 / Accepted: 8 April 2020 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract Water scarcity and drought management is the burning issue in India and hence needs serious attention of researchers to develop rigorous plan and management. Areas that belong to various plateaus, e.g., Chotanagpur plateau, Deccan plateau, etc., are mostly affected by drought in India. In the past decade, Bankura District of West Bengal, which belongs to northeast part of Chotanagpur plateau, faced severe drought several times. However, the assessment of drought scenario in this area is far from conclusive statement till date. In this paper, we simulate standardized precipitation index (SPI) using double exponential (DE) and Holt–Winter exponential smoothing model (HW) for several time steps (e.g., 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, 24 months and 48 months) in the time period of 1979–2014. The comparative analysis between two models indicates that DE is more accurate one. DE is observed with relatively low root mean squared error (RMSE) and high R2 value. Furthermore, drought-prone zones are demarcated using combined scores of principal component analysis (PCA) and those combined scores are estimated using actual, HW and DE simulated SPI in several time steps. At the shorter (3 and 6 months) and longer time step (12, 24 and 48 months), the PCA demonstrates almost same results. The western and northwestern blocks of the district are severely affected by drought, and the southern portions are at mild condition. Spatially distributed RMSE in every time steps is also high in northwestern portions of the study region. Our result may be useful to understand the pattern of drought to take necessary action in management of water resources in Bankura District, West Bengal. Moreover, the study uses an unique methodology to simulate and assess meteorological drought, which is applicable in any region of the world. Keywords Drought · Double exponential smoothing · Holt–Winter exponential smoothing
1 Introduction Drought can be defined as the prolonged period of dry conditions [1, 2], and it is one of the most complicated and least understood natural hazards. It is one of the natural disasters that human being has suffered since the ancient era [3, 4], and it is the costliest, recurrent natural disaster [5]. A meteorological drought can be expressed as a result of a precipitation shortage or as a lack of precipitation over
a region for a period of time [4]. According to the Olukayodo [6], meteorological drought is one of the most essential and primary drought types that need to be addressed with care and attention. Meteorological drought simulation is a critical element in drought risk management [7]. Simulation models express the real behavior of a particular phenomenon needs to address appropriately to know the actual nature of a specific system [8]. Simulation of me
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