Snowmelt runoff assessment and prediction under variable climate and glacier cover scenarios in Astore River Basin, West
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Snowmelt runoff assessment and prediction under variable climate and glacier cover scenarios in Astore River Basin, Western Himalayas Mehwish Iqbal 1 & Gulraiz Akhter 1 & Arshad Ashraf 2 & Sobia Ayub 1 Received: 6 May 2018 / Accepted: 7 September 2018 # Saudi Society for Geosciences 2018
Abstract Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on the Himalayan region, which may ultimately affect the water security and agriculture productivity in the region. Investigations of hydrologic regimes and their linkage to climatic trends are therefore gaining importance to reduce vulnerability of growing implications in the region. In the present study, the eWater source software implementation of GR4JSG snow melt model was used for snow melt runoff modeling of the Astore river basin, western Himalayas. The model calibration and validation indicated a close agreement between the simulated and observed discharge data. The scenario of 0.9 °C increase in temperature indicated 33% rise in the river discharge, while an increase of 10% in precipitation may exaggerate the river flows by 15%. The scenario of 100% increase in glaciated area showed 41% increase in the Astore river discharge. On the other hand, reduction of 50% glacier cover may result in 34% decline in the river discharge, while 0% glacier coverage may reduce the river discharges by 49% from that of the base year 2014. It is essential to develop a long-term water resource monitoring process and adapt water management systems taking into account the socio-economic and ecological complexities of the region. Keywords Snowmelt . Astore basin . Climate change . Himalayas
Introduction A fifth of world population depends on rivers originating from glaciated region of Hindu Kush Karakorum and Himalayas (HKH) of High Asia. The changes in climate and corresponding impacts on snow and glacial environment in the high mountain system have been frequently studied during the recent decades (Bolch et al. 2012; IPCC 2013; Lutz et al. 2014; Hasson et al. 2017; Shekhar et al. 2017; Pant et al. 2018; Steiner et al. 2018). The signals of global warming are causing the retreat of glaciers particularly in the Himalayas, although the pattern of climate change, glacier retreats, thinning, advances, and surges is complex (Kargel et al. 2011; Hewitt * Arshad Ashraf [email protected] 1
Department of Earth Sciences, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan
2
Climate, Energy and Water Research Institute, National Agricultural Research Center (NARC), Park road, Islamabad, Pakistan
2005; Bolch et al. 2012; Bishop et al. 2014). The climate change forecast for the Himalayan region has special concern for the Indus River System (IRS), which is heavily reliant on the snow and glacial resource of the Upper Indus basin (Kamal 2008; Ali et al. 2009; Immerzeel et al. 2009; Rasul et al. 2011). The water resources of Pakistan depend heavily on the glacial melt water from the HKH ranges (Anwar and Iqbal 2018). Any change in the flow of river Indus will not only effect the li
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