Evaluation of Water Sustainability under a Changing Climate in Zarrineh River Basin, Iran
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Evaluation of Water Sustainability under a Changing Climate in Zarrineh River Basin, Iran Farhad Yazdandoost 1
1
& Sogol Moradian & Ardalan Izadi
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Received: 17 March 2020 / Accepted: 11 October 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
This paper presents the results of studies on water resources management strategies, under the influence of climate change, in the Zarrineh River basin, providing some 41% of the total inflow into the Lake Urmia. Climate change simulation over the period 1992–2050 was performed by downscaling of seven global circulation models. The best model was then selected for modelling the hydrological behavior of the basin using a rainfall-runoff model while an allocation model was used to evaluate future supply and demands. A system dynamics model was further utilized to investigate the sustainability of the dynamic behavior of the basin. Five suggested water resources management strategies for two future climate scenarios were investigated. Results indicated that implementation of the strategy of 40% reduction in agricultural water demand would provide higher degrees of sustainability. Based on this, the average annual inflow to Lake Urmia in the years 2021 to 2050 would be 1029.75 MCM, which is equal to 81.02% of the Lake Urmia’s environmental requirement from the river’s share. Keywords Climate strategies . Water resources sustainability . System dynamics modelling . Integrated system performance
1 Introduction Water sustainability is a relatively new notion for the performance evaluation of water resources systems over long-term periods (Santikayasa et al. 2014; Srdjevic and Srdjevic 2017). Water sustainability is defined as the ability of a water resources system to meet all of its demands in various water consumption sectors. To preserve the sustainability of the system against climate change, understanding the climate change process and its threatening factors is
* Farhad Yazdandoost [email protected]
1
Civil Engineering Department, K.N.Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
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Multidisciplinary International Complex (MIC), K.N.Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
F. Yazdandoost et al.
necessary (Li et al. 2014; Zhai and Tao 2017). Climate change has led to changes in the magnitude and timing of runoff and, therefore, have serious consequences for present water resources as well as for management of future water resources systems (Arnell 1999; Dibike and Coulibaly 2005; Nkomozepi and Chung 2014; Torabi Haghighi and Klove 2017). In addition, several studies over the world indicate that tensions over water resources will intensify as a result of decreases in water availability due to climate change (MacDonald 2010; Siegfried et al. 2011; Gandure et al. 2013; Singh et al. 2014). Although the threatening factors in climate change may be out of control, they can be predicted to find adaptive solutions to these environmental changes (Adger et al. 2011). Common points among most studies, assessing watershed sustainability against climate change, has been to a
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