Spatial-temporal distribution of climate suitability of winter wheat in North China Plain for current and future climate
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Spatial-temporal distribution of climate suitability of winter wheat in North China Plain for current and future climate scenarios Xiaopei Tang 1,2 & Haijun Liu 1,2 Received: 20 April 2020 / Accepted: 28 October 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Wheat production in the North China Plain (NCP) is critical to food security in China; however, it is affected by climate change. Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of climate suitability of wheat in NCP may help to rationally use climatic resources as well as reduce natural disasters. Out of 30 general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, the 5 best GCMs were selected for each meteorological factor to project daily data in 2021–2100 under representative concentration path 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 for 23 national climatic stations in NCP. Based on agricultural climatic suitability theory and the fuzzy mathematics method, the suitability of water, temperature, and solar radiation was analyzed. The results showed that the water suitability increases from 0.30 at present to 0.40 for 2021–2100 under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with the lowest mostly distributed in the northwest. The temperature suitability varies from 0.80 at present to 0.75 for 2021–2100 and generally increases from north to south; however, at stage 2 (from overwintering to greening), it drops from 0.67 to 0.50 under RCP4.5 and 0.20 under RCP8.5 for 2081–2100. The decreases of water suitability at stage 5 (from heading to milking) and temperature suitability at stage 2 show negative effect of climate change to winter wheat. The solar radiation suitability shows an increasing trend under two scenarios in the future. Finally, the integrated climate suitability shows a little increasing trend, indicating climate condition of winter wheat in NCP will be slightly improved. Nomenclature as Regression constant in calculating RS b Constant in calculating S(sij) brij Influence coefficient of precipitation in the ith growth stage of the jth year bsij Influence coefficient of solar radiation in the ith growth stage of the jth year btij Influence coefficient of temperature in the ith growth stage of the jth year Cj Integrated climate suitability over the entire growth stage in the jth year D Total number of days in a year dr Reciprocal of the relative distance between the sun and the Earth ds Regression constant in calculating RS ET0 (mm) Reference crop evapotranspiration
ETC (mm) ETCij (mm) ETCsumj (mm) G H J K Kc m Mi ‾M
* Haijun Liu [email protected] 1
College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, No.19, Xinjiekouwai St, Haidian District, Beijing 100875, China
2
Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology, Beijing Normal University, 100875 Beijing, China
n N (h) na(h) Oi
Crop water requirement Accumulated ETC in the ith growth stage of the jth year Sum of ETCij over the entire growth stage in the jth year Ratio of precipitation to water requirement under slight drought c
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