Distribution of rose hip ( Rosa canina L.) under current and future climate conditions
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Distribution of rose hip (Rosa canina L.) under current and future climate conditions E. Seda Arslan 1
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Ayhan Akyol 2
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Ömer K. Örücü 1
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Ayşe Gül Sarıkaya 3
Received: 12 April 2020 / Accepted: 6 August 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract This study aims to model the potential distribution areas of the species Rosa canina L. (rose hip) and to predict and analyse possible future changes in its distribution under given climate change scenarios. Nineteen bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were applied to 180 known species presence locations and the potential distribution area of the species under current conditions was identified using MaxEnt. To determine the future geographical distribution of the species under the impact of climate change, the Community Climate System Model (CCSM ver. 4) was used. The climate change scenarios were taken from the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2070 developed in line with the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In addition, change analysis was carried out to identify the precise differences of area and location between the current and future potential distributions of the species, specifying habitat gains, habitat losses and stable habitats. Finally, a jackknife test was carried out to determine which individual bioclimatic variables affect the geographical distribution of the species the most. The study found that areas totalling 170,596 km2 are currently ‘highly suitable’ for Rosa canina L., but that this area will contract to 114,474 km2 by 2070 in the RCP 4.5 scenario and to 41,146 km2 by 2070 in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The mean temperature of the wettest quarter was the most influential bioclimatic variable affecting the distribution of the species. Keywords Climate change . Species distribution model . MaxEnt . Rosa canina L. . Change analysis
Introduction
Communicated by Wolfgang Cramer * E. Seda Arslan [email protected] Ayhan Akyol [email protected] Ömer K. Örücü [email protected] Ayşe Gül Sarıkaya [email protected] 1
Department of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey
2
Department of Forest Engineering, Faculty of Forestry, İzmir Kâtip Çelebi University, İzmir, Turkey
3
Department of Forest Engineering, Faculty of Forestry,, Bursa Technical University, Bursa, Turkey
The structural and functional integrity of ecosystems is being eroded by a number of negative factors including rapidly changing climates, the fragmentation of habitats, invasions by alien species, water, land and air pollution, the excessive consumption of natural resources, and growing human population (Adhikari et al. 2012; Barnosky et al. 2011). Among these factors, climate change has emerged as an important ecological forcing that directly affects flora and fauna. The effects of climate change are increasingly visible, and their impact on plant and animal sp
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