Standards for the performance assessment of territorial landslide early warning systems
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Luca Piciullo I Davide Tiranti I Gaetano Pecoraro I Jose Mauricio Cepeda I Michele Calvello
Standards for the performance assessment of territorial landslide early warning systems
Abstract Landslide early warning systems (LEWS) can be categorized into two groups: territorial and local systems. Territorial landslide early warning systems (Te-LEWS) deal with the occurrence of several landslides in wide areas: at municipal/regional/ national scale. The aim of such systems is to forecast the increased probability of landslide occurrence in a given warning zone. The performance evaluation of such systems is often overlooked, and a standardized procedure is still missing. This paper describes a new Excel user-friendly tool for the application of the EDuMaP method, originally proposed by (Calvello and Piciullo 2016). A description of indicators used for the performance evaluation of different Te-LEWS is provided, and the most useful ones have been selected and implemented into the tool. The EDuMaP tool has been used for the performance evaluation of the “SMART” warning model operating in Piemonte region, Italy. The analysis highlights the warning zones with the highest performance and the ones that need threshold refinement. A comparison of the performance of the SMART model with other models operating in different TeLEWS has also been carried out, highlighting critical issues and positive aspects. Lastly, the SMART performance has been evaluated with both the EDuMaP and a standard 2 × 2 contingency table for comparison purposes. The result highlights that the latter approach can lead to an imprecise and not detailed assessment of the warning model, because it cannot differentiate among the levels of warning and the variable number of landslides that may occur in a time interval. Keywords Landslide early warning systems . Rainfall thresholds . Performance . Duration matrix . Statistical indicators . Landslides . Territorial Introduction Operational landslide early warning systems (LEWS) aim at reducing the loss-of-life probability by inviting stakeholders (e.g., civil protection agents, administrators, lay people) to act properly in populated areas characterized, at specific times, by an intolerable level of landslide hazard (Calvello 2017). LEWS widely differ depending on the type of landslide they address and the scale of operation, which is related to the size of the area covered by the system. Two categories of LEWS can be defined on the basis of the scale of operation (e.g., Bazin 2012): (i) local LEWS (Lo-LEWS), dealing with a single landslide system at slope scale; and (ii) territorial LEWS (Te-LEWS), dealing with multiple landslides at regional scale. The adjective “territorial” is herein preferred over the most commonly used adjective “regional” to provide a more general name for all the LEWS employed over a wide area, e.g., a nation, a region, a municipal territory, a river catchment (Piciullo et al. 2018). In the literature, there are several proposals schematizing the structure of LEWS and highlighting the im
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