Study on a Decision Making Methodology with Uncertainties in the Selection Process of Preliminary Investigation Areas
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6WXG\RQD'HFLVLRQ0DNLQJ0HWKRGRORJ\ZLWK8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKH6HOHFWLRQ3URFHVVRI 3UHOLPLQDU\,QYHVWLJDWLRQ$UHDV 1 1 Hiroyuki Tsuchi , Toshihiro Seo , Richard Metcalfe2, Kenji Kawano2, Hiroyasu Takase2, Andrew Bowden2, Yasuhiro Suyama3, Masaru Toida3, Mitsuaki Furuichi3, Atsushi Matsumura4, and Miyoshi Yoshimura4 1 Nuclear Waste Management Organization of Japan, 1-23, Shiba 4-Chome, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 108-0014, Japan 2 Quintessa Limited, Queen’s Tower A 7-707, 2-3-1 Minatomirai, Nishi-ku, Yokohama, 220-6007, Japan 3 Kajima Corporation, 19-1, Tobitakyu, 2-Chome, Chofu-shi, Tokyo, 182-0036, Japan 4 Dia Consulants Co., Ltd, 2-272-3, Yoshino-cho, Saitama-shi, Saitama, 330-8660, Japan $%675$&7 The selection of Preliminary Investigation Areas (PIAs) to be considered in the siting procedure for a Japanese High Level Radioactive Waste (HLW) repository, will require Site-specific Evaluation Factors (SSEF) to be considered. Evaluation of these factors requires a methodology for taking into account various kinds of uncertainties in varied types of literature data. The study described here evaluated the application of Evidential Support Logic (ESL) for this purpose. The approach involves constructing hierarchical process models. Uncertainties are then propagated from the lowest processes, corresponding to data or information, through intermediate processes, to some top level process of interest, such as “assessing the existence of an active fault”. To evaluate the usefulness of ESL a hypothetical site was assessed. The results demonstrate the value of the approach to support decision-making in the selection of PIAs. ,1752'8&7,21 The “Specified Radioactive Waste Final Disposal Act” of June 2000, specifies that there will be three stages to the siting process for a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository in Japan: 1. In the first stage, a literature survey will be conducted on a nation-wide scale. Preliminary investigation areas (PIAs) for potential candidate sites will then be nominated, based on area-specific literature surveys. 2. Detailed investigation areas (DIAs) for candidate sites are then selected from PIAs following surface-based investigations (including borehole activities etc). 3. In the final third stage, detailed site characterization, including studies in underground facilities, will lead to selection of a site for repository construction. The Nuclear Waste Management Organization of Japan (NUMO) has decided to proceed with repository siting based entirely on an “open solicitation procedure” (a call for volunteer host municipalities). This process provides a unique challenge for ensuring transparency and traceability in the selection of a site. A structured approach is required to meet this target, which has been discussed partly in the light of the development of Repository Concepts for given siting environments [1]. Siting Factors for the selection of PIAs have also been developed [2].
1
The Siting Factors relate to legal requirements (Evaluation Factors for Qualification; EFQs) and factors
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